Question NW637 to the Minister in The Presidency for Electricity
05 April 2024 - NW637
Manyi, Mr M to ask the Minister in The Presidency for Electricity
(a) What are the full details of the causes of the recent high frequency of load shedding, despite efforts towards integrating renewable energy sources into Eskom’s grid and (b) how does he explain the persistent challenges facing Eskom in maintaining stable electricity supply, despite his numerous visits to Eskom plants and initiatives to address the issues?
Reply:
(a)It is incorrect to suggest there has been a recent “high frequency of load shedding”. It is important to note that Stage 6, which occurred from 09 February 2024 midnight until 11 February 2024 midday, was an outlier due to the multiple generation units being taken offline.The gradual improvement brought about by the Generation Operational Recovery Plan has started to be visible as far as the frequency and intensity of loadshedding in the past five and half months, September 2023 to mid-February 2024
A comparison of loadshedding between December 2022 and February 2023 (from 1 December 2022 to 16 February 2023) and in the same period (1 December 2023 to 16 February 2024) indicates that loadshedding hours were reduced from 1 801.25 to 1 217.98, which is about 600 hours less.
It is important to note that renewable energy does not, and will not address, baseload requirements due to its intermittent nature, which depends on sunshine and wind speed. Whilst we continue to ensure ease of path for the development of our renewable basket, including battery storage capacity, we are fast-tracking efforts to ensure, in the short to medium term, work is initiated to convert the current (diesel) peaking plants to gas-to-energy facilities capable of operating as baseload stations.
(b) The improvement of the EAF and unplanned outages results from the concerted efforts focusing on priority power stations (Kusile, Kendal, Majuba, Matla, Tutuka and Duvha), where each power station has its detailed recovery plan. A total of 3 510MW was recovered by January 2024 through these interventions.
The highest level of planned maintenance was performed between December 2023 and January 2024, reaching an average of 18% of the generation capacity. The downside of increased maintenance was a negative impact on EAF. However, the deliberate spike in planned maintenance aims to improve the reliability of the generation fleet, deliver long-term benefits, and ensure the security of the energy supply.
Although heightened maintenance negatively impacted the Energy Availability Factor (EAF), it remains a necessary trade-off, as the deliberate spike in planned maintenance is intended to improve the generation fleet's reliability to deliver long-term benefits and ensure the security of the energy supply is restored. Not only has the plan started to yield desirable results as far as EAF is concerned, but the Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (unplanned outages) has also taken a positive turn from 34% of the generation capacity in January 2023 to 30% in January 2024
The gradual improvement brought about by the Generation Operational Recovery Plan has starting to be visible as far as the frequency and intensity of loadshedding in the past five and half months, September 2023 to mid-February 2024
Based on linear modelling undertaken by the Ministry, had Planned Maintenance been reduced by 25-50% from September 2023 to February 2024, Load shedding could have been wholly averted for this period, and consequently, a much improved EAF performance could have been reported; edging annualised EAF performance closer to the planned 65% target to March 2023.However, this would have left the system vulnerable and weaker going into winter 2024.
The notion that Eskom’ is experiencing a further decline in performance is not supported by the factual position, as reported. It is also important to emphasise that the setback of implementing Stage 6 from 09 February 2024 midnight until 11 February 2024 midday was an outlier due to the multiple generation units being taken offline.While EAF has not tracked in line with the planned performance, the declining trend, which has been ongoing for the past six years, has been arrested.
The reduction in the intensity and frequency of loadshedding and the positive EAF trajectory is evident indicators of improvements in the generation fleet's performance. The focus remains on sustaining this trajectory.