Question NW632 to the Minister in The Presidency for Electricity
05 April 2024 - NW632
Graham, Ms SJ to ask the Minister in The Presidency for Electricity
(1) Whether, with reference to the statement issued by Eskom on 2 March 2024, where it was confirmed that the Generation Operational Recovery Plan had been successful in arresting the decline of the energy availability factor (EAF), he has found that the utility is on track to achieve an EAF of (a) 65% from the current EAF by 31 March 2024 and (b) 70% by March 2025; if not, in each case, why not; if so, what are the details of how the respective EAFs will be achieved in each case?
Reply:
(a) The improvement of the EAF and unplanned outages results from the concerted efforts focusing on priority power stations (Kusile, Kendal, Majuba, Matla, Tutuka and Duvha), where each power station has its detailed recovery plan. A total of 3 510MW was recovered by January 2024 through these interventions.
The highest level of planned maintenance was performed between December 2023 and January 2024, reaching an average of 18% of the generation capacity. The downside of increased maintenance was a negative impact on EAF. However, the deliberate spike in planned maintenance aims to improve the reliability of the generation fleet, deliver long-term benefits, and ensure the security of the energy supply.
Although heightened maintenance negatively impacted the Energy Availability Factor (EAF), it remains a necessary trade-off, as the deliberate spike in planned maintenance is intended to improve the generation fleet's reliability to deliver long-term benefits and ensure the security of the energy supply is restored. Not only has the plan started to yield desirable results as far as EAF is concerned, but the Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (unplanned outages) has also taken a positive turn from 34% of the generation capacity in January 2023 to 30% in January 2024
The gradual improvement brought about by the Generation Operational Recovery Plan has starting to be visible as far as the frequency and intensity of loadshedding in the past five and half months, September 2023 to mid-February 2024
Based on linear modelling undertaken by the Ministry, had Planned Maintenance been reduced by 25-50% from September 2023 to February 2024, Load shedding could have been wholly averted for this period, and consequently, a much improved EAF performance could have been reported; edging annualised EAF performance closer to the planned 65% target to March 2023.However, this would have left the system vulnerable and weaker going into winter 2024.
The notion that Eskom’ is experiencing a further decline in performance is not supported by the factual position, as reported. It is also important to emphasise that the setback of implementing Stage 6 from 09 February 2024 midnight until 11 February 2024 midday was an outlier due to the multiple generation units being taken offline.While EAF has not tracked in line with the planned performance, the declining trend, which has been ongoing for the past six years, has been arrested.
The reduction in the intensity and frequency of loadshedding and the positive EAF trajectory is evident indicators of improvements in the generation fleet's performance. The focus remains on sustaining this trajectory.
(b) The increase in planned maintenance (September 2023 – February 2024) has created buffers in the available capacity going into winter 2024. From the end of March 2024, we will begin reducing planned maintenance from the high of 8000 MW (January 2024) to 5000 MW in April 2024 and to around 4000 MW in May 2024. Effectively, this will account for 4000 MW available to the system during the winter 2024 peak season.
In addition, Medupi Unit 4 (800 MW) will return to service in August 2024, followed by Koeberg Unit 2 (980 MW) in September. Further, Kusile Unit 6 (800 MW) will be synchronised to the grid in December 2024, adding up to 2,300 MW of additional capacity during the year.
These will similarly improve EAF performance (year on year). Coupled with the expected improved performance (or reduced failure rate) due to the aggressive maintenance programme, all indications are that we are on track to achieve the planned target for March 2025.