Question NW3001 to the Minister in The Presidency for Electricity
04 January 2024 - NW3001
Graham, Ms SJ to ask the Minister in The Presidency for Electricity
(1) Whether, in developing a sustainable energy mix to address the energy crisis, the National Energy Crisis Committee (Necom) has investigated (a) geothermal energy and (b) wave energy; if not, why not in each case; if so, what (i) were the determinations in terms of the suitability of the specified energy source in each case and (ii) are the relevant details in each case; (2) whether Necom has investigated funding for energy innovation geared towards developing solutions to address the energy needs of the Republic; if not, why not; if so, what are the relevant details?
Reply:
1. (a/b) The draft IRP 2023 reviews the approved IRP 2019 and covers two-time horizons, namely the 2030 and 2050 time horizons. Several key assumptions used in the IRP 2019 have significantly changed, including the electricity demand projection, Eskom’s energy availability factor, Eskom’s coal fired power plants shutdown plan, as well as the cost of new power generation technologies.
The 2030-time horizon (Horizon One) focuses on addressing prevailing generation capacity constraints, whereas the 2031 – 2050 time horizon (Horizon 2) focuses on an analysis of the energy mix pathways for sustainable security of supply.
For Horizon One – five scenarios have been developed and assessed based on the state of readiness of projects in the pipeline. The scenarios considered include first the RMIPPPP, REIPPPP 5 and business projects currently under construction. Second, all project initiatives with commercial operation date (COD) and a specified location. Third, all project initiatives include those with no grid capacity reservation, COD, and specified location. Additionally, two scenarios, one comprising the reference case and current gas programme, and another based in improved plant performance according to the generation recovery plan have been modelled.
For Horizon 2, six energy pathways were considered to assess the impact of the different energy technologies in ensuring the country’s power system security of supply at the least cost to the economy. The reference pathway establishes a benchmark against other pathways and it is based on least cost. The five other pathways are based on certain guiding policy principles and they are designed to be exploratory in nature. These policy principles were formulated with a focus on decarbonising the power system, shutting down of existing coal-fired power stations post 2035, and exploring clean coal technologies including carbon capture.
Technology specific options (including geo-thermal / wave energy) will be enabled once the 2023 IRP has been through public participation process, based on the least cost principal.
2. NECOM, has 5 outcomes to address the immediacy of energy security and reducing the frequency of load shedding. As such, no specific funding has been considered for energy innovation. Never the less, the Department of Science and Innovation remains the custodians of the National research and innovation strategic path, in concert with the relevant line Departments.
The Department’s Technology Innovation programme plays a key role in developing a sustainable and globally competitive South African energy knowledge base and industry, especially in relation to the emerging global hydrogen economy, by informing and co-shaping the national energy policy in coordination with the Department of Energy and other key stakeholders.