Hansard: Approppriation Bill: Debate on Vote No 13 - Statistics SA

House: National Assembly

Date of Meeting: 14 May 2012

Summary

No summary available.


Minutes

UNREVISED HANSARD

EPC – COMMITTEE ROOM E249

Tuesday, 15 May 2012 Take: 418


TUESDAY, 15 MAY 2012

PROCEEDINGS OF EXTENDED PUBLIC COMMITTEES – COMMITTEE ROOM E249

____________________________

Members of the Extended Public Committee met in Committee Room E249 at 16:47.

House Chairperson Mr M B Skosana, as Chairperson, took the Chair and requested members to observe a moment of silence for prayers or meditation.

APPROPRIATION BILL

Debate on Vote No 13 - Statistics South Africa:

The MINISTER IN THE PRESIDENCY: NATIONAL PLANNING COMMISSION: House Chairperson, hon members, ladies and gentlemen, when I first became a Minister and delivered budgets it was almost compulsory that you wore a buttonhole. Now you're wearing such a beautiful flower today, may I borrow it? [Laughter.]

It's worth repeating that the collection and synthesis of data for a national statistical system is something that most people around the world take for granted. We have a sense that the way in which data sets, even from Statistics SA, are received tend towards the same cavalier attitude from time to time. Part of the challenge, part of the responsibility of the statistical agency is to ensure that the detail of the compilation process is understood and that the data series is trusted.

In the recent past, there has been an intense debate between Statistics SA, frequently represented by the Statistician-General, and a particular private agency. Part of the debate is focused on what the level of unemployment actually is. Now, if we follow the arguments of the private company, then South Africa would not have a problem of unemployed people and the emphasis of policy-making could fall elsewhere. If, however, the unemployment level is at 25,2%, as per the most recent Statistics SA release of 8 May 2012, then policy must be directed towards that object. For this reason, Parliament needs to satisfy itself about the quality of statistical releases so that the people will know and policy will be trusted.

Two weeks ago elections were held in Greece and by last night the attempt by the Greek President, Karolos Papoulias,who had invited the three largest parties each to form a coalition, collapsed. Greece now stands on the threshold of what may prove to be an even larger calamity than what they are now living through.

Breaking news this afternoon is that a new election will be called. The three largest parties in Greece, New Democracy scored 18,85%, Syriza, which is a left coalition, scored 16,78%, and Pasok, the socialists, scored 13,18%. Together the three largest parties secured a mere 48,81% of the votes, insufficient to form a government even in the grandest coalition style. The solution might be to invite the Greek electorate back to the polls in the hope that a fresh election may produce a stronger basis for the formation of a government, but nothing is certain about that.

Whilst all of this debate proceeds, there are also questions about whether Greece will remain part of the euro zone. This is fundamentally important because if the answer is no, then it would mean introducing or reintroducing a Greek currency and rebuilding the institution of the Greek central bank to take responsibility for monetary policy decisions. There are untold permutations of what may happen in these circumstances, ranging from the level of the exchange rate of this new currency to the deficit level, to the fundamental question of who will lend to the Greek sovereign state and who will lead the government.

On the issue of lending I just want to make the appeal that it is fundamentally important that decisions that are taken actually be stuck to. I know that it's very popular for the hon Ollis and the hon Singh to rave on about e-tolling, but we must be careful about what we wish for in the circumstances.

But this is not a Budget Vote about the Department of Transport nor is it the Budget Vote of the Greek government. The importance of the issue is actually in statistics and whether your statistics are trusted. The issues about the quality of Greek statistics date back at least for the past decade, and we have seen a system in which Eurostat accepted the statistical releases of the Greek government in good faith and there was really no early-warning system.

For the past months we have watched as the Greek government attempted to negotiate what to do about the deficit and debate the extent of the austerity measures they face and the terms of the bailout. What we must recognise is that at the root of the problem lies statistical miscalculations.

In September last year, the Greek courts ordered a preliminary investigation into whether there had been a conscious miscalculation of the deficit to 15% in order to impose a harsher bailout package. Against this there was the counterargument that the calculation was actually done to correct a problem that had been there for a very long time.

While all of this was taking place, the community of Greek statisticians has been caught in a war among themselves, all centred on the Hellenic Statistical Authority, Elstat. There were claims and counterclaims that it was socialist statisticians versus conservative statisticians; that it was about the size of the bailout and the scale of the pain, all occasioned by an intense debate around how large the deficit actually has been and still is. So, we must understand that statistical outputs are actually exceeding the political.

I'm saying that, frequently, we are cavalier in our treatment of statistics, thinking that when a release is put out that it is the man in his yellow suit who wrote on the back of a cigarette pack a few numbers, and then released them. If we treat statistics in that way, I think, we will come to pay a heavy price as a nation as we are now seeing this Greek tragedy unfold.

The fundamental importance of accurate and independent statistics cannot be stressed enough, and so we must recognise the foresight of our leaders at this institution here in Parliament who ensured that the independence of Statistics SA was written into the legislation that governs the release of official government statistics.

Section 5 of the Statistics Act, Act 6 of 1999, only gives the Minister the power to prioritise the work of the agency on the recommendation of the Statistician-General and after having been advised by the Statistics Council. Sometimes I want to ring everybody's neck at Statistics SA and get them to produce different numbers, but I think that we better served by the kind of legislation that we have.

As Minister I monitor the performance and, after consultation with Cabinet, I have the power to appoint the Statistics Council. Section 5(3) of the Act very clearly indicates that the Minister may not interfere with the work of the Statistician-General, including how and when statistical information is gathered and released. The production of statistics in South Africa is therefore carefully regulated by the Act, which clearly defines the powers, duties and relationship between the Minister, the Statistician-General and the Statistics Council.

While the Act in Section 5 outlines the Minister's responsibilities, Section 6(2)(a) further strengthens the Statistician-General's professional independence. The importance of reiterating the legislative framework governing Statistics SA is essential because, while it is funded by the national Budget, it has an independence that we have to respect. If we are to have any confidence in the foundations of our economy and indications about the quality of life our people and use this as a basis for evidenced-based policy-making, we must hold this independence dear.

We should recognise the value of quality legislation that creates independence for Statistics SA and appreciate the oversight role of Parliament, as well as the jealous protection by Parliament of this quality of legislation

Statistics SA has to maintain the accuracy of the statistics being produced and it is important that the data on which it is based is an accurate reflection of reality. For this reason it needs to update its methodologies and surveys from time to time. A few years ago the consumer price index, CPI, was radically overhauled. The CPI is being improved again with the usual periodic update of the basket of goods and services that are priced each month referred to as reweighting, as well as changing the reference period of the index, that is the rebasing of the consumer price index.

The revised CPI will be released in February next year. This revision of the CPI is being done to ensure that the relative expenditure weights in the CPI reflect the changing behaviour of households and remain relevant and accurate. The basket of items that form part of the CPI is derived from the income and expenditure survey in which the sample of 30 000 households are expected to maintain a diary of consumption for a period of 12 months.

Similarly, the producer price index is being re-engineered in a process that started in 2009. This will result in a parallel set of releases. The producer price index, PPI, for manufacturing will be separated into two different price indices. The first PPI for manufacturing of goods for further processing only includes goods in its basket that will be used again elsewhere in the manufacturing process, such as basic steel, that will be used again in the manufacture of motor vehicles for instance.

The second PPI for manufacturing of goods for final consumption will include goods that are destined for final consumption and include food items. The PPI for final goods will therefore track the CPI much closer since the items in the basket will be more similar than the current situation. So, for example, an increase in fuel prices will be reflected in both the manufacturing price index as well as in the agriculture price changes. The idea is to modernise the system so that price changes are tracked and reflected more accurately at the farm or factory gate.

Now, we live in a situation in which PPI has kind of been out of date for some time. I've come to understand just how detailed the work is to overhaul an index like it, but we must get to a situation in which farm and factory-gate prices are actually a lead indicator of what happens in the economy - and it becomes fundamentally important that we get an index that truly is trusted, and we haven't quite had that with PPI in the same way as we have with CPI.

Every few years various data sets and registers have to undergo a fairly substantive review to ensure that the outputs are relevant. Hon members would be aware that the outputs of the Quarterly Employment Statistics, the QES, compiled from the results of an employer-based survey, and the Quarterly Labour-Force Survey, the QLFS, compiled from a survey at household level, show marked discrepancies.

We desire a much higher level of correlation. This will be possible through the construction of a business register that remains current and has both integrity and accountability. To attain a business register such as this, a census of all businesses throughout the country will have to be conducted, a register compiled and then regularly updated.

This process, by its very nature, will be both intensive and costly. But, once such a high-integrity register exists, it will be possible to triangulate information by combining the efforts of Statistics SA with those of the Companies and Intellectual Property Commission, the CIPC, based at the Department of Trade and Industry, and the data available from the SA Revenue Service – a matter that was canvassed, to some extent, in the portfolio committee discussions of this Budget Vote. As of now, these data sets are not yet in alignment. In many ways, working for such alignment is a real test of the intragovernmental endeavours necessary for the construction of a national statistical system.

I now turn to this somewhat elusive platform. While the business register provides a key opportunity for intragovernmental co-ordination, Statistics SA is tasked, under section 14 of the Act, with the responsibility of co-ordinating statistics among organs of state. It is fundamentally important to note that the Act, in fact, requires the Statistician-General to certify the statistics being produced by Statistics SA, first and foremost, as official in addition to that of other organs of state. This means that the quality of statistics produced by Statistics SA undergoes the same rigorous measurement against the SA Statistical Quality Assessment Framework, the so-called Sasqaf, as expected from other partners.

In terms of co-ordination, major strides have been made with the SA Police Service by establishing a relationship to assist in the improvement of the crime statistics strategy. In addition, Statistics SA will conduct the second annual Victims of Crime Survey in close collaboration with key role-players in the safety and security cluster in 2012. Is that why the hon Kohler-Barnard came? She just heard "crime" and she came. [Interjections.] Agreement has been reached to improve alignment of the definitions used before producing a joint publication.

Statistics SA is continuing to build partnerships with government departments by providing the technical support necessary to conduct self-assessments of the quality of statistics. In this regard, the Department of Science and Technology was amongst the first institutions to undertake self-assessment on their Research and Development survey, and has gone further to the second stage of being assessed by a joint team. The Department of Basic Education has applied the SA Statistical Quality Assessment Framework to develop standards specifically for education and is about to embark on the process of assessing education statistics against these standards.

One of the questions that Statistics SA is asked on a regular basis when engaging with Parliament is whether they have a sense of migration patterns internally and across our borders. While a formal response will be provided to the report of the Standing Committee on Finance on this matter, it is important to say something about vital statistics.

In addition to releasing the monthly and annual statistical information on vital statistics, Statistics SA will be releasing a report on documented immigrants during 2012/2013. The report will be published in June of this year and will provide information on the statistics on permanent and temporary residents, dating back to 2010. It will include information on the country of origin, the ages of the applicants and the types of permits. It is envisaged that in future this report will become an annual release.

We need to understand the importance of the issue, not only in terms of being able to use administrative records, but also in terms of initiatives undertaken on the continent. The African Ministers for home affairs have formally agreed to improve civil registration and vital statistics as a key priority over the next five years.

Last year during this debate I spoke about the importance of the census that was conducted later in the year. I will say more about what the current status of that massive undertaking in a few minutes. I want, however, to reiterate the importance of those results for the many other statistical surveys conducted by Statistics SA.

In all probability sample surveys Statistics SA undertakes, selecting a percentage from the total, the sample selected would be around 30 000 households out of a total of about 14 million, because the permutations in random selection become fundamentally important in taking account of income distribution – urban and rural - types of households, etc.

At certain times that number is increased to 300 000, as was the case with the community survey. In other surveys repeat visits are implemented, as is the case in the income and expenditure survey and the living conditions survey. All of these samples are a reflection of the total number, which makes it imperative that the census against which they are measured has to be an accurate and reliable reflection.

Through these sample surveys, we can glean a steady supply of information about where South Africans live, work and play. Amongst these is the Quarterly Labour Force Survey, mentioned earlier, through which 30 000 households are sampled each quarter out of this labour-market information, including the levels and rates of change in employment and unemployment. Statistics SA will be introducing new modules in the QLFS questionnaire to collect information on migrant work, as well as to improve the questionnaire to ensure that it is more gender responsive. A time-use survey was conducted in 2011 and this information will be released in the second quarter of 2012.

The General Household Survey, GHS, is another annual survey that reaches out to a sample of 30 000 households and asks about living conditions of residents and, more importantly, focuses on service delivery quality indicators, such as the availability and adequacy of services including water, health care provision, etc. Using the GHS results, Statistics SA will release three additional reports that include one on food security and agriculture by August of this year, a report on the social profile of South Africa by December, and a report on social development indicators by March of next year.

Another ground-breaking survey is the Living Conditions Survey which will be applied in building poverty measures and poverty lines, including subjective poverty for South Africa. This arsenal of statistical data and information will continue to be provided as indicated in the Statistics SA work programme.

It was during this debate last year that I made the appeal to Members of Parliament to become census ambassadors and to go into communities and constituencies and address the fears. It is thanks to the efforts of Members of Parliament in general and members of the Standing Committee on Finance in particular that I can say that the 2011 Census field operations have been successfully concluded, with more than 14 million dwellings or households visited in 103 000 enumeration areas.

Statistics SA is currently processing the 14 million returns in an operation that continues nonstop 24 hours a day, seven days a week. The purpose of having the 1 200 staffers working shifts to complete this incredible undertaking is to ensure that the data is available for use sooner rather than later. It is obviously important that in completing this task we are assured of the quality of the data collected and collated. In this regard, the Statistics Council, that has the legal responsibility to manage the quality of the statistics being produced, has appointed both local and international experts to undertake the evaluation.

These experts – not having been party to the appointment – are not very gender friendly, I observed. The experts, who have already received a 5% sample and have started the evaluation, include Prof Rob Dorrington, Prof Tom Moultrie, Dr Kenneth Hill, Prof Eric Udjo, Prof Carel van Aardt, Dr Griffith Feeny, Prof Julian May, Dr Jeremiah Banda and Prof Charles Simkins.

As part of the quality assurance process, an independent post-enumeration survey was conducted, where a representative sample of the country was sampled using a shorter questionnaire. The variables of this survey will be compared to the census to assist with the evaluation of any possible under- or overcounting.

Current indications are that the results will be released by the end of September this year. In order to ensure that the data gathered in this massive operation is easily available, information will be released using a wide range of platforms, such as hard copies – mind you - electronically, on social networking sites, and through the media more generally. I urge members to examine the census results in detail once the census has been released because it should be an invaluable asset to every Member of Parliament. The idea would be, of course, to bring it down to ward level at municipalities, and every constituency should be well covered. This should be your weapon for holding the executive to account, because you should have the ammunition to back any claims that you make. Using the census data, you should have proof in terms of numbers to be able to demand better services. Whilst we are cognisant of the importance of census results for government and business to plan, it is, equally, up to members of this House to ensure that the planning is appropriate and that it meets the needs of the communities and constituencies that you convinced to participate in the census.

I want to take this opportunity to thank the Standing Committee on Finance, ably chaired by the hon - not the horrible - Thaba Mufamadi for consistently providing thoughtful insights and challenges to Statistics SA. I want to express our appreciation to the Statistician-General, Mr Pali Lehohla, and his team, and the team at Statistics Council, which is chaired by Mr Howard Gabriels - he is not here today but is represented by Mr Mphahlele - for their advice and hard work. We commend the Budget Vote of Statistics SA to this House. Ndza khensa. Thank you. [Applause.]

The HOUSE CHAIRPERSON (Mr M B Skosana): Thank you, hon Minister. You also made a remark about my flower. I think I anticipated that the man in the yellow suit would not be wearing it today, so ... [Laughter.] It is a substitute.

Mr T A MUFAMADI / GC / END OF TAKE


UNREVISED HANSARD

EPC – COMMITTEE ROOM E249

Tuesday, 15 May 2012 Takes: 419 & 420


The MINISTER IN THE PRESIDENCY: NATIONAL PLANNING COMMISSION

Mr T A MUFAMADI: Hon Chairperson, hon Minister, hon members, I recognise management and staff and the leadership of Statistics SA in the gallery ...

Sepedi:

Mna T A MUFAMADI: ... modulasetulo, ka ge e le tlwaelo le tlhago go tsopola bangwadi le diboledi, go ya ka maleme a go fapana a bobona, ke be ke kgopela gore ke thome polelo ya ka ya letšatši ka go tsopola yo mongwe wa borena, setsebi, mongwadi, monna yo a bego a tšhabega efela a hlomphega ka mo poleleong ya gabo ya Sepedi; yena ke O K Matsepe. Go tšwa go e nngwe ya dipuku tša gagwe tše di tumilego, yeo e bitšwago Megokgo ya Bjoko, mo polelong ya gagwe o ile a re, gomme ke a tsopola, "Go rarolla le go hlopholla ditaba le bokamosobja setšhaba, re swanetše go tseba gore batho ka tlhago re llela go phela, re llišwa ke go phela, re llela go phala bangwe, re llišwa ke go phalwa ke ba bangwe, re llela tšwelopele, re llišwa ke tšwelopele."

Ka ge nneteng gona bophelo e le peakayno yeo go yona mang le mang a ratago go ba tšhia ya letšatši le lengwe le le lengwe, re llela go buša, re llišwa ke go bušwa, re llela go huma, re llišwa ke bodidi; gobane nneteng gona, se se kaone se ka ganwa ke wa mogopolo wa mohuta mang?

English:

On World Statistics Day two days ago, the United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon stated that:

Statistics permeate modern life. They are the basis for many governmental, business and community decisions. They provide information and insight about the trends and forces that affect our lives.

This was but the affirmation of what O K Matsepe said about the role of statistics, according to his own understanding, in that statistics will support the quantification of human needs and not wants, and human entitlements such as education, health and jobs.

Our progressive Constitution guides the trajectory of our development and the path we ought to take in achieving a national democratic society. However, in order for us to build a society that is prosperous and free of the triple challenge of poverty, inequality and unemployment, we must be able to measure the damage that has been done by apartheid. After measuring this damage, we can then fashion objectives, policies and programmes, and allocate sufficient funding or resources to these. In such a case, the importance of relevant, reliable and accessible statistics must be emphasised as the backdrop of successful development.

In assessing the historical evolution of Statistics SA, the period pre 1994 is a reflection of the development of a deep-seated partialness in the development of statistical information, selective and deliberately skewed, thus undermining its own science that it sought to project and defend.

Hardly eight years ago, Statistics SA was seen as an ugly-duckling government institution. Some thought it was like trying to fly a kite on a windless day and, as nothing happened, Minister, you and your team would even try to adjust the tail of the kite, probably even change the design and try to run faster without a breeze. Nothing was going to sweep the kite upwards and, as such, critics said nothing would happen to change the situation.

Hon Minister and Statistician-General, you have proven that in our case - contrary to the belief that those who came before us were supposed to be masterful and the latter ones, like ourselves, were supposed to be feeble, unmotivated or just puppets - as we speak today the opposite true, because Statistics SA is an independent body that collates, processes and analyses information and data as an independent organisation that makes its own pronouncements without interference.

Today we see an organisation that has evolved and matured into a swan. You dug deep and openly identified the limitations you inherited and those that you also created in the course of trying to build a better institution. You constructed a thorough strategy that continues to implement coherent and sequenced annual work programmes that deliver an enduring institution and better statistics that win the trust of the nation and the world. Today, without fear of contradicting ourselves, we can say that we have an institution that is in the service of the state, that leads in the implementation of statistics locally and on the continent and that holds its own globally.

This has been possible because government chose men and women whose passion and commitment have ensured that Statistics SA is not only a player here at home, but an international player of note in matters of statistics.

Sepedi:

Modulasetulo, ga se ka phošo go bona kgatelopelo goba tšwelopele ye mo leetong le. Maloba le maabane re be re lebeletše ngwana ge a sa ithuta go abula; lehono ga a ithute lleme le go ikatiša fela, o tloga a kitima, ka gore kgorong go dutše banna ba maledu le bohlogoputswa gammogo le basadi.

Tshivenda:

Nga Tshivenda tsha hashu ri ri i rema nga lunwe mbevhana mulindi wa vhuya wa dala.

Sepedi:

Ka ge re tseba gore lefase le ikadile ka bophara bja lona, mabothata le ona ga a kudupana, gobane ge a ka kudupana, a fa ka nnete re ka phela gabotse? Ke lona lebaka leo re lakaletšago ba Dipalopalo Afrika Borwa mahlogonolo ka dipholo tša bona tša go bala batho tša 2011 ka baka la gore katlego ya mešomo ya bona ke katlego yeo e lego gore e phumola meokgo ya setšhaba, ebile ke sehlare sa manyami setšhabeng.

English:

The annual strategic plans and budget underpin the established tradition and practice, which we have observed as a committee over the past few years within the context of continuity and change as encapsulated in the work programmes that focus on three critical areas. I will not elaborate on these critical areas.

In terms of economics statistics, improvements in both producer price index, PPI, and the consumer price index, CPI, are being made. Hon members, it is common knowledge that a robust PPI is a good lead indicator for the CPI, and that a comprehensive PPI will enhance the ability of citizens to understand the drivers of price changes and how these impact on their ordinary lives. Of course, CPI has a direct influence on the movement of interest rates in many countries, and South Africa is no exception.

The second priority I have identified, in terms of the transformation and the enhancement of Statistics SA, is improvement in the legislative environment, particularly sections 7 and 14 of the Act. In addition, your interest in international statistics development is well appreciated.

As we all know, our past could have a better one, and that it is not possible to fight for a better past. We must appreciate the progress made thus far by men and women since the dawn of democracy. We have moved from a situation in which Statistics SA was the domain of exclusive science, wielded by a select few for steering social, economic and political divisions. The ostensible vision of separate development demanded that statistics had to, in a true Machievellian manner, justify the ends.

This manipulation not only did damage to the science of statistical research, but, to a large extent, retarded the development of the science itself - to the extent that our heads were permanent spinning with suspicion every time statistical information was presented to the public. This turned the field of statistical research into a parochial and underdeveloped science.

The then national agency responsible for statistics, Central Statistical Services, was blighted by political imperatives far removed from the objective realities. Statistics had to serve an objective and be manipulated to that end.

Paradoxically, the self-engineered demise of Central Statistical Services arose from its own incapacity to respond to the increasing social and economic value and need for accurate and unengineered statistics. The disregard for social value in favour of strategic political value engendered erroneous measurements, the legacy of which we witness today. The information gap peaked, the quality of output regressed, and the capacity to produce data deteriorated. The growing call for change nationally was flanked by international critiques of discriminatory national statistics.

Transformation of the former national statistics agency, Central Statistical Services, thus became a necessary condition. The publication of the 1992 ANC set of policy proposals entitled "Ready to Govern" thrust statistical research into a new developmental paradigm. Here were a set of comprehensive policy drafts being presented during the period of the transitional executive committee, which demanded that research bodies in the socioeconomic discipline and those producing statistical data reorientate themselves and begin to prepare for a new democratic government whose research demands would far outstrip anything that had been seen before.

The 1994 launch of the Reconstruction and Development Programme, adopted as a White Paper in 1995, set in place the new paradigm in which epistemology, and socioeconomic and statistical research would be carried out in the future. The twin pillars of growth and development were to signal to statistical research that a fundamental shift from data collection for its own sake to data usage for developmental planning was dawning.

The greatest inputs to evidence-based policy-making are the establishment of the two Ministries in the Presidency. The National Planning Commission and the Department of Performance Monitoring and Evaluation signal an emphasis by government to develop policies and programmes that are rooted in measuring development. Data production is thus not removed from knowledge production aimed at service delivery and the transformation of the country.

The department emphasises the mutually reinforcing relationship between measurement and successful planning. In addition, through statistical information gaps, policy and project delivery can be traced back to their source with ease. For the first time in South Africa we are creating comprehensive data, standards and application that place us on par internationally.

Our vision for Statistics SA has never been nominal. The execution of statistical research cannot be detached from the challenges on the ground and from the needs of the people it serves. Statistical research must serve the needs of the masses of our people.

Therefore, the birth of Statistics SA had to be underpinned by a vision and mission that would be people-centred and people-driven and aimed at improving measurement for evidence-based decisions.

The imperative to move from statistical fragmentation to a more inclusive statistical system became paramount to the project of transformation. Through installing legal autonomy in professional statistics, an unprecedented move was made by the ANC-led government to dissociate statistics from its preoccupation with mechanics and operations to being outcomes oriented.

The changes that have been brought about in Statistics SA reflect broad-based change for development. Inclusivity shapes research programmes of statistics, and the internal restructuring of Statistics SA is a reflection of the orientation of functions for developmental purposes. This, in turn, has led to continual improvement in the discipline of statistical information and the cadre of professionals driving this.

Strategies directed at driving quality improvements are unprecedented in the field of statistics. The critical relevance of statistics can be seen in the high level of adherence to founding legislation. National statistics must become central to evidence-based policy formulation by linking its statistics and products to policy development, and monitoring and evaluating as prescribed in the Statistics Act.

In casting our net wider, Statistics SA has been able to increase public confidence in its research findings. The move from official statistics to new statistical domains will also enable government to meet the growing demand for the supply of official statistics.

The power of information can be seen in the manner in which it has been able to facilitate democracy. We have ensured that citizens have the right to quantitative information that allows them to make informed choices about their lives. More importantly, the oversight role of Parliament can be strengthened by the statistical capacity to track departmental benchmarks, targets and achievements against national priorities. This sets the tone for the legislature or Parliament that is based on the will of the people, as enshrined in chapter 4 of our Constitution.

Fears about data quality will continue to be allayed by the SA Statistical Quality Assessment Framework, Sasqaf, which follows international best practice with regard to quality and standards. Gaps in the quality of statistics will be addressed through the assistance of this quality assurance framework. Increased demand ...

The HOUSE CHAIRPERSON (Mr M B Skosana): Hon Minister, you have a minute left.

Mr T A MUFAMADI: Oh my gosh.

Let me say, in closing, that Statistics SA has committed to continuing its promotion of regional integration and global participation.

While Statistics SA continues to deliver more with the same, the steps that have been indicated in the strategic plan do indicate that there have to be changes in the resources that are allocated to Statistics SA.

In my mother tongue, ntate Pali Lehotla, we say: "Nwana a sa lili o fela ngozwimi."

Let me express appreciation for the commitment and collegial spirit of committee members in processing and executing our collective responsibilities. Hon Minister, it gives me pleasure that the committee and the ANC support the Budget Vote as presented.

"Na vhuvhi halo pfene na musi mavhele a lo ngo la." This means that all of us support this budget. Thank you. [Applause.]

Mr T D HARRIS / ARM(Sep)/ END OF TAKE

UNREVISED HANSARD

EPC – COMMITTEE ROOM E249

Tuesday, 15 May 2012 Take: 421


Mr T A MUFAMADI

Mr T D HARRIS: Hon Chairperson, in his speech earlier the Minister flew a kite on the political nature of statistics. In that regard, I came across this from a British judge, who was obviously much more cynical than I am, and many years ago had the following to say about statistics:

The government are very keen on amassing statistics. They collect them, add them, raise them to the nth power, take the cube root and prepare wonderful diagrams. But you must never forget that every one of these figures comes in the first instance from the village watchman, who just puts down what he damn pleases.

Thankfully, these days, I understand Statistics SA depends less on village watchmen and more on personalised surveys to provide our national statistics.

And because these statistics allow us to assess the needs of our people, underpin our policy-making and inform the division of revenue, it is difficult to overstate how important it is to accurately measure key statistics like population, GDP, inflation and jobs.

Significant errors by Statistics SA since 2011 have, at times, threatened to undermine public trust in official statistics. The 2001 Census had a 17% undercount, and this was followed by the massive overestimation of a decline in manufacturing in 2005. The DA welcomes the fact that such errors have not reoccurred in recent years, although some valid questions are now being asked about methodology which I will get to later.

First, let me turn to the issue of the Statistics SA budget. The one figure that is not clearly defined is the estimated final cost of the 2011 survey, so I ask the Minister to please clarify the figure for me. The DA gave its full support to the census and eagerly waits for the results to be announced.

We appreciate that the census required a massive increase in headcount at Statistics SA and we also note the 28% increase in the line item for the compensation of employees in 2011. It is concerning, however, that this item declines by only 4% in 2012 and then increases marginally next year and the year after.

Surely, once the 150 000 field workers have completed their temporary work, there should be a related decline in the total compensation of employees? Instead, what we see is a marginal decline in the wage bill from R1,25 billion to R1,2 billion in 2012. By contrast, total expenditure this year declines by 53%, appropriate, I think, for a year following a national census. But it does raise the question of why employee compensation is only declining by 4%. I therefore ask the Minister: Where is that money going with no census on the go?

Furthermore, in their 2012 strategic plan, Statistics SA make a request for above-budget increases of 12%, 23% and another 23% over the medium term. Their plan does not provide detail on why these increases are justified, and the engagement with the Statistician-General in the committee did not result in full satisfactory explanations. Perhaps the Minister could shed some light on why these increases are needed above what has been budgeted for by Treasury.

Turning now to methodology, we welcome the effort to rebase and re-engineer the Consumer Price Index, CPI. We are also pleased with Statistics SA's decision to construct separate inflation indices for income groups. But we call for these findings to be more prominently published on the Statistics SA website and in press releases.

We do this because these indices show that poor South Africans have faced the highest rates of inflation for 2011. In our party's own desktop research into price increases of products bought by poor South Africans, that research shows that these goods may have increased in cost by as much as 16% in just the first three months of 2012.

This reality has real implications for policy-makers in South Africa who need to have a better understating of price increases imposed on those least able to afford them. We believe Statistics SA has an important role to play in getting this information out there. Through you, Chair: Mr Minister, will you join me in asking the department to do this?

The DA would also like to see Statistics SA change their attitude to criticism from labour-market analysts. The ongoing spat between the Statistician-General and Adcorp about the measurement of the informal sector and migration is unseemly. It lowers the tone of what could be a constructive engagement on the measurements of key variables.

In recent years the Statistician-General has labelled Adcorp's research as "ad hoc rubbish", "absolute nonsense" and "metaphorical hallucinations of an intoxicated institution". This is the wrong approach from a key government institution to a debate that could improve our understanding of the structure of the South African economy.

It is obvious to everyone that Statistics SA's measurements of the informal sector and migration are not perfect, because, I think, these variables are relatively difficult to measure. But it also seems clear to most that some improvements need to be made.

Since 1995 the gap between GDP growth and formal employment growth has widened. Statistics SA attributes this to increased unemployment, while Adcorp claims there has been an increase in the size of the informal sector, which they estimate is three times larger than Statistics SA's official numbers indicate.

Adcorp has also identified significant undercounting of key statistics across the board, averaging out at around a 30% undercount for everything from the number of taxpayers and businesses to the number of unemployed and those receiving social grants. They calculate these divergences by using other government sources like the SA Revenue Service, Sars, the Unemployment Insurance Fund, UIF, and the bargaining councils and comparing them to what Statistics SA is finding.

It seems reasonable to us that rather than lashing out at these findings, Statistics SA should investigate whether it makes sense for them to weigh data from their surveys against other information on economic activity, such as tax returns, the amount of money in circulation, studies of the informal sector, the size of the small business sector, and estimates of unrecorded economic activity including that of illegal immigrants.

Regarding migration, it seems that the questions asked in last year's census might not generate sufficient data to assist us to better understand the true extent of immigration into South Africa, because they were based, as I understand this, on language preferences. That is all very well and we can understand why the survey was designed like that, but we feel this obliges Statistics SA to undertake a specific and extensive study, perhaps in collaboration with Home Affairs and even private-sector players like the Business Trust or Adcorp, to get a better understanding of how many immigrants there actually are in South Africa, legal and otherwise. Through you, Chair, does the Minister agree?

The MINISTER IN THE PRESIDENCY: NATIONAL PLANNING COMMISSION: No.

Mr T D HARRIS: Regarding the size of the informal sector, the official statistics point to a serious decline in atypical employment from 3,6 million in 2000, to 2,1 million last year. Surely that cannot be.

This is a surprising finding which, at the very least, justifies the question Adcorp is asking about how we measure the size of the informal sector. The day that Adcorp's proposals are met with an open invitation to collaborate and work together and not with hostility from the Statistician-General and cries of "nonsense" and "rubbish", will be a good day for us. Chairperson, I would like to ask the Minister if he agrees on this.

The MINISTER IN THE PRESIDENCY: NATIONAL PLANNING COMMISSION: No. Not, with you. [Interjections.]

Mr T D HARRIS: I think the Minister can reply in his speech. You do get some time. [Interjections.]

Lastly, I turn to Statistics SA's project to develop a single business register, a joint initiative between Statistics SA, the SA Revenue Service and the Department of Trade and Industry. Last year, in this budget debate, Minister Manuel told this House that the "policy framework and draft legislation aimed at creating a single business register has been developed", and that this was on its way to getting Cabinet approval before the target date for completion in 2013.

We thought this was great news. We welcomed the announcement as an important move towards accurate measurements of our economy and better understanding of the constraints facing those trying to establish businesses. But then we were dismayed to read in this year's Statistics SA work programme that apparently, and I quote: "Serious challenges have hindered progress and, as a result, the target to have a single business registration point by 2013 will not be achieved."

So my final request of the Minister, which he is free to deal with in his speech, is to clarify which challenges exactly have led to this government not achieving what he committed them to this time last year.

The DA appreciates the work done by Statistics SA and their efforts to help us understand the reality of our country today. We reiterate our call, however, for more transparency on budget increases, particularly around the wage bill, and proper open engagement with private-sector analysts who may help to shed light on key measures like migration and the size of the informal sector. Thank you. [Applause.]

Mr N J J v R KOORNHOF / LIM / END OF TAKE

UNREVISED HANSARD

EPC – COMMITTEE ROOM E249

Tuesday, 15 May 2012 Take: 422


Mr T D HARRIS

Mr N J J van R KOORNHOF: Chairperson, today, 20 years ago, Codesa 2 started, and I wonder what the statistical chances were for us then to succeed. Well, 20 years later we know what happened. The year 2012 is going to be a big year for Statistics SA. In October, we shall know whether the money spent and the planning time devoted to Census 2011 was a success or not. All pointers go in that direction, and we are looking forward to the announcement later in this year.

The hon Minister should make that announcement in Parliament, if we are in session, in order to add weight to the importance and the meaning of a proper census to the wellbeing of a country. We wish Statistics SA all the best in the final preparations towards the announcement date. We welcome the new development regarding the planned improvements to the consumer price index, CPI, and the producer price index, PPI. The fact that the PPI weights derived from the national accounts and a variety of industry surveys and administrative sources will be updated annually from January 2014 and not every five years is a huge improvement. Adding to that, the updating of the CPI, the survey of household expenditure, also referred to as the Income and Expenditure Survey, will now be updated every three years. Previously, it was every five years. This is a huge improvement.

The Living Conditions Survey becomes the new tool to update the CPI more frequently, and we are looking forward to this improved frequency which will enable the CPI to better reflect the changes in consumer expenditure patterns.

Statistics SA has a very good relationship with this finance committee. We wish you well and hope that the Auditor-General is also happy with all the steps you have taken in an effort to obtain a clean audit in 2011.

In conclusion, I want to end on a lighter note. Therefore, I have a few statistics jokes to crack. According to the statistics, male drivers are bad for the environment. British men waste six million hours of driving each year burning gas and polluting the environment because they do not stop to ask for directions. A woman spends, on average, two years of her lifetime looking at herself in the mirror. [Laughter.] A man spends only six months doing this; however, men look at the reflection of themselves as often as women do but it is just that women take longer. They say a statistician is someone who loves to work with numbers but does not have the personality to be an accountant. Sorry for those at the back. [Laughter.] If you watched the Statistician-General in his yellow suit in 2011, the question why statisticians do not like to model new clothes becomes very appropriate: lack of fit. [Laughter.] How do you tell one bathroom full of statisticians from another? You check the p-value. According to statistics, it is proven that the celebration of a birthday is healthy. It shows that those people who celebrate the most birthdays become the oldest. Can it be true? According to statistics, all dogs are animals, and all cats are animals. Therefore, all dogs are cats. [Laughter.]

Apparently, in earlier times they had no statistics, and so they had to fall back on lies. Statisticians do it when it counts. They do it with large numbers. They say statistics are like a bikini: what they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital. [Laughter.] We wish South Africa all the best towards the successful announcement of the Census 2011 results. I thank you. [Applause.]

Mr N SINGH


UNREVISED HANSARD

EPC – COMMITTEE ROOM E249

Tuesday, 15 May 2012 Take: 422


Mr N J J VAN R KOORNHOF

Mr N SINGH: Chairperson and hon Minister, I will move from the vital statistics below the bikini to the serious debate on statistics. Let me start by saying that my party aligns itself with the recommendations that were developed by the committee on finance and that we support this budget of statistics. [Applause.]

I must say, Chairperson and hon Minister, that I was personally very impressed during the oversight visit to Statistics SA and to witness for myself, with some of my colleagues, the scale and complexity of Census 2011 and what is still going to be required to complete and present to Parliament and the nation the outcomes of Census 2011.

Having said that, and quite strangely enough, when I got home that evening, I went to a meeting. It was a board meeting of hospice, which I chair in my area. There were 10 people there, and I indicated to them that I had just come from Statistics SA and had looked at this very mighty operation. Eight of those 10 people indicated to me that they had not been counted. One told me that there was a sign on their door but nobody came to their house. Statistically speaking, if one has to extrapolate that information, it means that 75% of the people were not counted during Census 2011. [Interjections.]

Chairperson, this brings me to the point of saying that I think as we move towards the next major census in five years' time – I think the Act says every five years, but we did it 10 years afterwards – Statistics SA needs to look at the methodology. We need to keep up with the technology, the use of iPads, the use of cellphones and other technology to ensure that we get accurate information and that we get the co-operation of the majority of the citizens of South Africa. Unfortunately this did not happen in Census 2011, because there were a number of people that gated themselves and didn't allow these census collectors to come in and get the kind of information that they wanted. So, I think, we really need to start getting up to date with the kind of technology we use towards the next census.

I also want to remind Statistics SA of one of the strategies that they have documented of promoting transformation. That strategy is "Collaboration and partnership between producers of statistics". To that extent, I want to agree that the unfortunate spats that occur between Statistic SA and other producers of statistics are not good for us in the country, and they are not good for people internationally who read these kind of statistics. I am in no way suggesting that any other agency produces correct and more accurate statistics than Statistics SA, but what I am saying is that there is a greater need for collaboration and consultation so that, at the end of the day, there are particular norms and standards that one can follow in producing the statistics. The same would apply with statistics that are gathered by municipalities and other departments. Statistics SA, as the mother body, has a duty to ensure that there are norms and standards which govern the way they go about collecting their statistics.

Chairperson and hon Minister, you also mentioned that as Census 2011 information gets revealed, Members of Parliament could utilise this information to agitate for better service delivery. I would go a step further by saying that the way the information is presented must be so user-friendly that civic organisations, nongovernmental organisations, and people out there in rural areas and everywhere else should be able to understand and back up their claims for service delivery in their areas on the basis of what Census 2011 has produced.

It is important for them, because sometimes we take them for granted when they say, "Well, half of the people in this area do not have water" or "Three quarters of the people do not have electricity in this area". With this information, if we presented it to them in a user-friendly way, they would be able to utilise this to agitate for better services.

I want to compliment Statistics SA on the bursaries that they issue, and I do understand that they have a training institute. I don't know how effective the training institute is. Maybe the Minister could advise us on whether the training institute is working and achieving its desired objectives. I also want to congratulate Statistics SA on the Auditor-General's reports. I see that they have done pretty well in pleasing the Auditor-General, and I see representatives of the Auditor-General sitting in the gallery, who can confirm that Statistics SA has come of age in terms of ensuring that they comply with financial regularity, which I think it is very important. I can see my time is up, and the Chairman is looking at me. So, Chairperson, once again, we confirm our support for this Budget Vote. Thank you. [Applause.]

Ms L H ADAMS /LN/Mia / END OF TAKE


UNREVISED HANSARD

EPC – COMMITTEE ROOM E249

Tuesday, 15 May 2012 Take: 423


Mr N SINGH

Afrikaans:

Me P E ADAMS: Agb Voorsitter, agb Minister Manuel, agb voorsitter van die komitee, agb lede, dames en here, die aanbreek van politieke demokrasie in 1994 en die eise van die oorgangsperiode het die tekortkominge van die staat se beskikbare statistiese data skerp na vore gebring. Uit die eise van die Heropbou- en Ontwikkelingsprogram het dit duidelik geblyk dat meer omvattende statistiese inligting nodig sou wees om die nuwe ANC-geleide regering in staat te stel om te beplan en waarteen die prestasie van sy eie beleid, programme en projekte gemeet kon word. Die toentertydse Sentrale Statistiekdiens was nie in staat om die gehalte statistiek te lewer wat vir die opbou van die nuwe samelewing nodig was nie. Die ommekeer in die toedrag van sake was beide kompleks en tydrowend, en die eerste tekens van sukses het eers na 2003 sigbaar geword.

English:

The ANC believes in evidence-based policy development and for that reason the developmental state needs reliable and up-to-date statistics for the day-to-day strategic decisions. The then Minister of Finance, Minister Manuel, in 2003 challenged Statistics SA and the SA Statistical Association, Sasa, to consciously pay attention to the fact that South Africa did not have enough numerically competent professionals. The response to this challenge has been steadily addressed over the years and today Statistics SA is a leader on the continent, a hub of competence from which other agencies draw important experience and information.

Afrikaans:

Sedert 2003-04 is algaande meer samehangende, akkurate, relevante en betroubare amptelike statistiek gelewer. Hierdie vlak is bereik deur die toepassing van internasionaal aanvaarde standaarde, definisies en klassifikasies en deur die skepping van vennootskappe en die verbreding van menslike hulpbronne en kapasiteit. Die verbeterings blyk duidelik uit die sleutelprojekte wat oor die afgelope jare in reaksie op verbruikersvereistes geloods is. Begrip van die basislyndata waaruit statistiek voortgebring word, is baie belangrik. Statistiek SA se doel is om statistiese inligting te vertolk op 'n wyse wat terselftertyd deursigtige meting van die staat se prestasies en aanspreeklikheid bevorder. Statistiek SA dra by tot Suid-Afrika se ontwikkelingsdoelwitte met akkurate en gehalte statistiek op ekonomiese-, demografiese-, sosiale- en omgewingsvlak. Die statistiek van hoogstaande gehalte word kragtens internasionaal aanvaarde praktyke deur 'n bekwame en goed gekwalifiseerde kader amptenare geproduseer.

English:

Building human capacity through a skills development strategy is designed to address the quality aspects of human resources to produce, disseminate and make use of official statistical information. Statistics SA has compiled a comprehensive statistical skills development framework to improve statistical literacy and engender an enthusiasm for numbers. Over the medium term, it will focus on improving the foundation of statistical literacy at the schools level, establishing partnerships with tertiary institutions, building capacity within Statistics SA, and participating in statistical development initiatives in the Southern African Development Community, SADC.

Afrikaans:

In 2005 het Statistiek SA sy interne opleidingsprogram begin om die vaardighede en kennis van gekwalifiseerde vakleerlinge op te skerp deur deelname in 'n gestruktureerde opleidingsprogram. Die opleidingsprogram van 12 maande is ontwikkel vir universiteitstudente en werklose graduandi in dissiplines soos statistiek, ekonomie, demografie, rekenaarwetenskap en kwantitatiewe sosiologie. Die grootste uitdaging is om 'n kwalitatiewe verbetering in ons wetenskap- en wiskundige uitkomste te verseker, aangesien dit 'n voorvereiste vir sukses in 'n loopbaan in statistiek is.

Mense-, data-, kennis- en organisasiesbestuur is die grondslag van Statistiek SA se volhoubaarheid en sukses. Daarom moet daar in die bates belê word. Vaardigheid, deskundigheid en vakkundigheid is bates wat benodig word om suksesvol aan die staat en ander rolspelers se statistiese vereistes te voldoen. Mense is derhalwe Statistiek SA se belangrikste bate, en in hierdie opsig moet daar met besighede en ander staatsdepartemente om die beskikbaarheid van professionele statistici en wiskundiges meegeding word.

English:

More than ever, there is now a stronger demand for statistics to provide a basis for measuring and monitoring development goals and targets and to establish multidata indicators which reflect progress and change. The changing requirements for statistics demand that quality and relevance should guide the transformation of statistics in the public domain. This transformation is aimed at making statistics fit for use for decision-making, planning, monitoring and measuring.

Monitoring and measuring progress in the development of a country requires statistical data of a consistent and reliable quality. It needs a sound statistical system based on sound infrastructure, on the integrity of the production environment and technical support in the production of statistics.

Statistics SA has identified a set of integrated and harmonised competencies which are central to the way the organisation and its employees work. The distinct competencies that are required involve knowledge and skills required in the fields of statistics, mathematics, sociology and geography to produce official statistics; the people, information technology and systems central to the production of statistical information; the ability of organisational processes and systems to collect statistical information on a large scale from various sources in the field; the ability to understand and respond to the political environment and related pressures; and the ability to manage a statistical environment, including planning communication, public relations and governance.

The strategic focus and relevance of Statistics SA in the future will depend on trust and public confidence in the statistical information that is generated; the role of the state in giving strategic guidance and influencing the national research agenda; and sustained statistical capacity and partnerships in the development and sharing of best practices in statistics.

In 2010, Statistics SA adopted a new strategic direction, transforming the country's statistical system to address statistical information requirements, quality and skills gaps. A key feature of Statistics SA pending in the medium term will be on the capacity-building programme to improve the current levels of statistical skills and address the shortage of specialised skills in the department. To attract new and retain highly qualified personnel, Statistics SA receives an additional allocation of R75,9 million over the medium term for improved conditions of service.

IsiXhosa:

Abantu sesona sixhobo sibalulekileyo.

English:

People are our best assets. The ANC supports the Statistics SA Budget Vote. I thank you. [Applause.]

Mr S N SWART


UNREVISED HANSARD

EPC – COMMITTEE ROOM E249

Tuesday, 15 May 2012 Take: 423


Ms P E ADAMS

Mr S N SWART: Chairperson, the ACDP would like to commend Statistics SA for its commitment to providing accurate social and economic statistics on a monthly, quarterly and annual basis. The work of Statistics SA is held in high regard both domestically and internationally, and this is not a standard government body as its independence is vested in its own law which prevents political interference.

Let us be reminded that official statistics are used for evidence-based decision-making for information planning, for monitoring programme implantation and performance, and for research and historical value. This information should and does assist us as parliamentarians in monitoring a broad range of indicators, from economic indicators such as GDP growth, CPI, PPI to employment and job creation – that is, the whole spectrum of society.

In the absence of statistical evidence, policy-making and oversight would be well-nigh impossible. So, we are pleased that the quality of statistics is better than it was five years ago, and, significantly, internal governance has improved since the days of qualified audits.

The ACDP wishes to compliment Statistics SA on the relatively successful completion of Census 2011. Notwithstanding the yellow suit, this is definitely no lame duck and has become a swan.

Whilst we appreciate that the results will only be available from November, we are hopeful that undercounting will be lower than the previous census and will be in line with international best practice. Accurate statistics as to the size of the population will enable us as parliamentarians to ensure that resources and services are better allocated and that we win the fight against poverty and unemployment. As indicated by the Minister, every survey that Statistics SA will be doing afterwards will be measured against the statistics produced in this census.

As far as the budget is concerned, we do share concerns about the lack of funding, but we tend to agree with our colleague Mr Harris about the headcount and that one should have expected a reduction in salaries and that that is possibly an area in which there could be a saving. However, Statistics SA said that there would be significant constraints resulting in its underfunding and that gains achieved in establishing statistical infrastructure may also be reversed. What is most alarming is Statistics SA's assertion that: "If the current status continues, statistics will become inaccurate and irrelevant."

We cannot allow this. South Africa has a very proud tradition of keeping statistics which we cannot lose. An additional R204 million is requested for the present financial year, and this request should be seriously considered by us parliamentarians to ensure that statistics do not become inaccurate and irrelevant. The ACDP will support this Budget Vote. I thank you. [Applause.]

Mr E M MTHETHWA / JM /END OF TAKE


UNREVISED HANSARD

EPC – COMMITTEE ROOM E249

Tuesday, 15 May 2012 Take: 424


Mr S N SWART

Mr E M MTHETHWA: Hon Chairperson, hon Minister Trevor Manuel, hon members, Statistician-General, the staff of Statistics SA, guests, friends and patrons, the international statistical development responsibilities are informed by the United Nations Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics. Principle 9 relates to the use of international concepts, classifications and methods to promote the consistency and the efficiency of statistical systems between countries. Principle 10 relates to bilateral and multilateral co-operation to improve the system of official statistics in all the countries, as the Minister has said.

Beginning from the late 1970s and throughout the 1980s there was a general decline in statistical production in Africa on account of poor economic performance and the low priority governments placed on statistical production. This decline became a major concern to both national governments and development partners.

Subsequently, there have been several initiatives and policy decisions adopted by the African states. The 16th Meeting of African Ministers responsible for economical planning and development adopted the Addis Ababa Plan of Action for Statistical Development in Africa in the 1990s, which was formulated following a detailed assessment of national statistical capacity undertaken in 32 African countries.

One of Africa's initiatives was the Marrakech Action Plan for Statistics, which led to the Africa Symposium on Statistical Development in Cape Town in January 2006. Among other initiatives and major legal frameworks adopted to build an integrated and prosperous Africa were the Lagos Plan of Action, the Abuja Treaty, the Sirte Declaration, and the creation of the African Union and its New Partnership for Africa's Development.

The ANC's strategy and tactics document, as adopted by the 52nd national conference, states that South Africa's interests in a complex and unpredictable global environment necessitate the building of capacity for strategic and rapid responses to changes in our region, Africa and the world. Within this context, our global strategy will remain firmly anchored on the African continent and developing countries.

The Statistics Act of 1999 provides for South Africa's Statistician-General to participate in international statistical activities and to build relations with international statistics role-players. The Act further directs the Statistician-General to endeavour to fulfil the Republic's international statistics reporting obligations and to liaise with other countries and their statistics agencies, as well as to represent Statistics SA internationally on statistics matters.

The international relations division of Statistics SA is tasked with providing for international statistics liaison and support in order to facilitate adherence to international best practice and for there to be harmonious relations between Statistics SA and the international, and specifically African, statistics fraternity. It is a division that provides a set of services to other divisions in the organisation, while serving as a professional gateway into Statistics SA for statistics partners the world over. This programme has a bias towards statistics development in Africa, and therefore stands on three strategic pillars, namely the promotion of statistics development in Africa, the promotion of a culture of evidence-based policy formulation and decision-making, and the building of international partnerships.

In an effort to continually exchange skills and best practices with the statistics fraternity as a whole, Statistics SA's international programme will increase its participation in international statistics forums, continue to host international statistics events, increase its benchmarking, and learn from the best activities by undertaking co-ordinated study tours to leading international statistics agencies.

Since 1997, under the auspices of the SADC Millennium Census Project, South Africa has been a focal point for the project, and, under our supervision, we shared the training programmes with other countries outside the SADC region.

In assuming its role amongst nations, South Africa hosted two international conferences on censuses. The first of these was in 2001, and the second was in 2003. In 2005, South Africa hosted the Commonwealth conference of official statistics.

Statistics SA has an important role to play, as other speakers have said, in responding to the increasing global demand for statistics, particularly in Africa. Through engaging with other official agencies on the continent, Statistics SA has shared with and also learnt from other countries about implementing and maintaining international standards and best practices. Over the next five years, in order to enhance international participation in the production of statistics, Statistics SA will promote the importance of developing a culture of evidence-based policy formulation and decision-making, and continue to build international partnerships.

Statistics associations and councils in Africa have a definitive role to play in the continent's statistics development in renewal and maintenance initiatives of official statistics. These collaborative efforts are part of the leadership programme of making Africa a better place through its statistics development programmes. Following the establishment of our democratic South Africa in 1994, we are rising to become a global international political economy and are becoming an influential player, a process in which Statistics SA, in its pursuit of excellence, is playing a very important and much-appreciated role.

We wish Statistics SA every success, not only in its domestic activities but also in its continental and wider international ventures in fulfilling the priority outcome of creating a better South Africa, a better Africa and a better world.

The international relations subprogramme of Statistics SA's budget manages relations with international statistics agencies. The key outputs include international relations and statistics capacity-building in Africa with a total budget of R13,2 billion. The ANC supports this Budget Vote. [Applause.]

Mr D C ROSS / LAK////tfm/// END OF TAKE

UNREVISED HANSARD

EPC – COMMITTEE ROOM E249

Tuesday, 15 May 2012 Take: 425


Mr E M MTHETHWA

Mr D C ROSS: Chair, I am just coming to the podium because of the height of the microphone, not to invite questions from the hon Manuel. [Laughter.] It is quite a dangerous situation to be that close to the Minister. Hon Chairperson, thank you for the opportunity, and hon members, in the last year, South Africans have been subjected to significant increases in the cost of living. Electricity - I am always speaking about it - fuel, food and public transport have all become more expensive in a matter of months.

The cost of a basic food basket has increased on average by 16% per year for the past five years, well above the inflation rate of about 6%, and the price of electricity has effectively increased by 82,3% in the past three years. Petrol prices have increased on average by 11% over the past decade and, to top it all, Metrorail's ticket prices have effectively increased by 69% in the past three years, which is a significant increase. I think we will talk about that later.

This is, unfortunately, a continuation of a painful trend. When prices increase at this rate, significant pressure is exerted on the poorest of South Africans, and many speakers have alluded to that. Millions of people will be forced to decide what to cut from their budgets this month – quite a tragic situation. Some commentators suggest that the increasing cost of living is purely due to external factors and that we are powerless to act.

There is, in fact, a great deal that government can do to help shield poor South Africans from rising prices, foremost of which is, of course, devising economically sound policies built on accurate and honest statistics, and I think the Minister has alluded to that as well.

This indicates the importance of statistics, the subject before us today. Information is, indeed, power in a knowledge economy, and the platform of a planning and monitoring environment is anticipated in our Statistics Act, Act 6 of 1999. The draft national development plan asserts that South Africa can eliminate poverty and reduce inequality by 2030, and I would like to join my Afrikaans-speaking colleague to say in Afrikaans ...

Afrikaans:

Dit is inderdaad 'n belangrike doelwit, dame, en ek dink u het ook daarna verwys dat die voorsitter se nasionale ontwikkelingsplan se doelwit om teen 2030 armoede te verminder en ongelykhede uit te skakel onderskryf word – en ek dink ons deel alaml hierdie visie. 'n Ekonomiese en sosiale infrastruktuurinvestering is krities noodsaaklik om volhoubare groei te bevorder.

English:

The recent economic downturn in the South African economy, accompanied by higher unemployment and poverty, constitutes issues that trigger demands for new and better statistical information, and that was alluded to in many new methodologies that the committee is embarking on. Radical inflation in the products that predominantly affect the poor also calls for serious reflection on how inflation is measured.

Firstly, the official unemployment figures have been contentious for some time, and it is no secret that the most recent figure of 25,2% for the first quarter of 2012 is an understatement of the truth. Let me just get to the notes of the hon Minister, who indicated in his opening remarks how important the figure of employment actually is. You also indicated, Minister, that the important factor here is that people will know and Parliament will be trusted in terms of this figure. The figure excludes discouraged workers.

Afrikaans:

Dié syfer sluit ontmoedigde werkers uit.

English:

I think this is hugely problematic, and the parameters in which "discouraged" is defined are questionable at best. Are you really only discouraged if you haven't sought work for a week prior to responding to the Labour Force Survey? I think the hon Ollis would also know something with the Labour Force Survey.

The MINISTER IN THE PRESIDENCY: NATIONAL PLANNING COMMISSION: He doesn't know anything about ... [Inaudible.]

Mr D C ROSS: Okay. Let me then direct my speech rather to you personally, hon Minister. A broad definition of unemployment is estimated at approximately 38%. As shocking as it is to hear, we can only design effective policy if we make an honest assessment of reality, and, beyond the figure, it is the creation of jobs that is ultimately important.

Youth unemployment is particularly alarming, and it is the economically disadvantaged youth that spur the calls for irrational policy decisions, such as a mineral resource rent tax and mine nationalisation. The sheer magnitude of the unemployment problem, and the human suffering behind it, can easily be lost in the technical arguments around how it is measured. The salient point is, however, that unemployment is worse that we think it is because it is underreported.

Government should bow less to the pressures from the Congress of SA Trade Unions, Cosatu, and start working for the unemployed through creating more flexible labour legislation and implementing the youth wage subsidy. Beyond questions of how employment is measured, we must now return to the question of inflation - in simple terms, the impact of the increased cost of living on ordinary South Africans.

Afrikaans:

Die inflasievraagstuk en die impak op die gevolge vir gewone Suid-Afrikaners is ook uiters belangrik.

English:

The official inflation figure of 6% is also an understatement of the truth. The majority of people in South Africa simply do not experience an increase in their average cost of living of only 6%. If poverty levels in South Africa are roughly 38%, as we've indicated before, and the vast majority of poor people spend at least 50% of their income on food, electricity and transport, then the increase in prices I mentioned at the outset of my speech has a much more negative and profound impact on our country than is commonly recognised.

The question of inflation, of course, leads us straight back into the all-important question of unemployment. The single biggest barrier to job searching in South Africa is the high cost of

transport, and that's a very unfortunate situation for many poor people that would like to get to the places where they can apply for jobs. Never mind the fact that jobs are scarce, partly for the reasons mentioned earlier, the truth is that a poor person can hardly afford to even start looking for a job.

In closing, let me commend the sterling efforts that are being made to capture more data, more timeously - as the chairperson of the committee indicated, Mr Mufamadi - more accurately and more strategically. Let me also urge those in government and Statistics SA, especially, to think carefully about how they choose to report the key indicators. More than that, may I urge all of you to engage honestly with the data and renew our commitment to serving the very people that our data tells us need our support. Let us serve the people and the public through these statistics, and thank you, Minister, that there were no questions. Thank you. [Applause.]

Mr D D VAN ROOYEN / GG//Mia / END OF TAKE

UNREVISED HANSARD

EPC – COMMITTEE ROOM E249

Tuesday, 15 May 2012 Take: 426


Mr D C ROSS

Mr D D VAN ROOYEN: Hon House Chairperson, hon Minister, hon committee chairperson, hon Members of Parliament, the Statistician-General and his team, distinguished guests, my speech has the theme: "People's Statistics for People's Power". This is mainly because the Statistics SA evolution, as, obviously, succinctly narrated by the committee chair, inter alia, moved from serving the interests of the few to its current state of serving the entire nation's interests.

In sustaining the apartheid system, which was an absolutely morally repugnant, the oppressive government of the past ensured that statistics were produced only for three of the four recognised population groups, to the exclusion of the majority of South Africans.

Central Statistical Services, CSS, was not the sole provider of statistics in South Africa at the time. Statistics branch offices were erected in four of the 10 so-called independent Bantustan states. Additionally, independent institutions selectively collected data on some aspects of the black population depending on what they wanted to prove or disprove.

Now the question that the hon Harris and others must obviously address is: If so many statistics enterprises were in place in the past, then why are there so many questions around statistics now, as compared to the past and, more so, from the private sector. I think we must help each other in addressing that question.

To begin with, it is surprising that the obsession with biased statistics went unquestioned for so long among the research fraternity. Typically, researchers should continually strive for perfection in measurement and extrapolation. However, the CSS and related institutions devoured engineered statistics information to feed political and unsavoury motives.

The favoured type of information collected during this time put limited emphasis on the economics questions that would have exposed the brutality and blatancy of the regime under which statistics were collected and applied. The credibility of statistics information in the past was undermined by a range of factors, as already alluded to by most of the speakers. The million-dollar question for me and all of us is: Why the deafening silence then?

As the ANC, we argue that questions about the credibility of statistics produced by Statistics SA must be understood in the context of competing interests for territorial control of a powerful tool called Statistics SA. The ANC-led government seeks to demystify statistics and to use them for public good. We do not benefit financially from statistics production, but gain spiritual energy to continue to strive for a better South Africa far removed from the injustices of the past.

We are guided by the united front created by the Freedom Charter and its vision for an equal society in which all South Africans are employed, have access to the basic necessities such as housing, electricity and sanitation, and can participate in building a national democratic society. Our concern with respect to credibility is grounded in a deep concern for human life and development planning.

With the advent of democracy, a more people-centred statistics practice was introduced through the Constitution of South Africa. Through the revised Statistics Act of 1999, our statistics became more dependable because the science was guided by international best practice, as cited earlier, and not by personalised forms of self-interest. Aside from this, our government is not shy and has no intention of isolating itself from the global arena.

The ANC strategy and tactics document underscores the importance of engaging with the broader world in order to shape one's response to challenges. Part of this engagement in statistics involves sourcing indicators that reflect the critical matters in the country, such as the 10 themes of the Presidency, namely economic growth and transformation, employment, poverty, inequality, household and community assets, health, education, social cohesion, safety and security, international relations and good governance.

In addition, our mission of creating credible statistics involves revisiting or, in some cases, revising indicators regularly based on findings emerging from monitoring and evaluation projects, as conducted by the Department of Performance Monitoring and Evaluation.

In concurring with the hon Adams, a true test of statistical credibility lies in measuring the extent to which development planning can influence the creation of a society free from the constraints of the triple challenge of poverty, unemployment and inequality, as referred to by the chairperson. I am proud to say that statistics from Statistics SA have met the test of credibility, even by internationally recognised standards from the United Nations, as concluded by the hon Mthethwa.

Geographical hierarchy has made the job of improving statistics production very difficult for Statistics SA. This is compounded by the fact that statistics science regressed a lot under apartheid. The democratic government has had the job of not only overhauling an entire state, but also of refining and updating an entire discipline.

In this respect, the ANC welcomes Statistics SA's intention of improving the capacity of its organisation and entrenching itself amongst the people by building district offices in all nine provinces and by improving maths and the statistics skills base of its staff over the medium term.

Ironically, the responsibility of statistics production cannot be restricted to the realm of data collectors only. As public servants and civil society who are surveyed by research bodies, such as Statistics SA and other institutions, we have the responsibility of providing correct and current information.

Telling untruths in the hope of rigging data for favourable reasons generates statistical series that are unreliable and useless for development planning. Peddling lies and turning the wrong statistics into political truth is very unfortunate and must be deplored by all. I hope, Mr Harris, your advocacy of Adcorp's statistics won't lead you into that particular trap of peddling lies at the expense of the truth.

As the ANC, we are working to ensure that service delivery for marginalised areas ...

The TEMPORARY CHAIRPERSON (Mr J D Thibedi): Hon member, what did you say: "telling lies ..." Oh, okay. Continue, I misheard you.

Mr D D VAN ROOYEN: As a country, we have a collective responsibility of removing the myth that our statistics are of a lower quality to those produced by competing institutions. In this respect, Statistics SA goes the extra mile to explain – transparently, for that matter - the objectives and methods underlying its statistics products. Hon Harris, as you have succinctly advocated on behalf of competing institutions, please have the guts to inform us as a committee, because we have been asking these institutions to provide the methods that they use to generate their statistics. Also, please have the guts to inform Statistics SA of such methods so that those competing institutions can be taken seriously. This is because without proving that their methods are recognisable or of a high standard, it is difficult for Statistics SA to take them seriously.

Hon Singh, I think maybe you were at a meeting of an alien hospice, because you referred to seven people, because all of us know that Statistics SA staff were all over.

In conclusion, as the ANC we are satisfied that this budget provision will go along way in ensuring that Statistics SA remains an organ of people's power for complete people's emancipation, hence the beloved organisation, the ANC, supports Budget Vote 13. Ke a leboga. [Thank you.] [Applause.]

The MINISTER IN THE PRESIDENCY: NATIONAL PLANNING COMMISSION /

EKS//LIM//CHECKED// END OF TAKE

UNREVISED HANSARD

EPC – COMMITTEE ROOM E249

Tuesday, 15 May 2012 Take: 427


Mr D D VAN ROOYEN

The MINISTER IN THE PRESIDENCY: NATIONAL PLANNING COMMISSION: Thank you very much, Chairperson. Let me thank the members who participated. Before coming here, I was of the view that it would be a very boring debate, but I think it was lively and also lengthy. I was surprised by the number of members participating who were reminded of the one-minute rule. I did not think that we would have that much to say, but I'm glad that Vote 13 has so occupied our minds.

Let me turn to the issues raised by the hon Harris. I want to assure him that this is the Statistics SA Budget Vote not the Adcorp budget vote. But, you know, this matter was canvassed in the committee report and I want to say, while we were sitting there, that there was actually a question filed by the individual, Mr Sharp, to individuals in Statistics SA asking for clarity on methodology.

He did not know how to calculate certain things, but that did not prevent that gentleman from going to the press and talking about things. Now, you've had a situation, which is most unfortunate, in which a number of academics - Martin Wittenberg and Haroon Bhorat at the University of Cape Town and people like Andrew Levy and Terry Bell - have disagreed fundamentally with the arguments. I think that on the bench here, between yourself and the hon Ross, you have to clarify this matter, because you either accept the submissions by a loan shark then we do not have an unemployment problem, or you accept what the hon Ross said and we do. [Interjections.]

Mr T D HARRIS: [Inaudible.]

The MINISTER IN THE PRESIDENCY: NATIONAL PLANNING COMMISSION: No, no. I'm saying it is not just listening; the questions that Mr Sharp must answer is what his methodology is, what his survey sizes are, and how he arrives at the conclusions. [Interjections.]

What we are saying is: Put the issues on the table and then we can have a discussion about them. The attacks have come from him primarily, and now I think they have moved to a position in which a number of academics, who are seeded in the field of employment data, have actually taken him on.

On the second issue, namely migration, it has to be the hardest matter to try to deal with. It does not matter where you go. Go to Europe and look at the number of immigrants arriving - whether they are North Africans, West Africans or Polish plumbers arriving in the United Kingdom. It is a fundamentally important issue.

Look at the United States. They have no idea how many people have crossed the border from the south. What then happens is that you get the kind of repressive legislation that Arizona has introduced. These are all the same kinds of issues.

The reality is: It is a human condition. People do not wait around in abject poverty – people move. That is the origin, I think, of most us in this room. It is likely to be the trend that will shape people and their movement into the future. There is no short answer to it. I think that, over and above just the situation of desperation, sometimes not desperation, but the desire to have better opportunities, there is the unfortunate reality of extensive people traffic. So, we deal with a large number of people who are in the twilight zone and do not want to be known. This is what makes this matter so difficult.

My sense is that there will always be a very serious undercount of immigrants who have recently arrived in South Africa. This is just one of those realities you have to live with. We have looked at this from Statistics SA. We have worked outside Statistics SA with the actuarial society, and everybody has the same kind of problem. I think we must understand just how difficult it is.

The third issue that the hon Harris raised was the question of salaries. The stipends paid to field workers were calculated and recorded under goods and services, not under the normal salaries bill. So there is an amount of some R974 million - 120 000 people at R5 000 was the total they got for doing the work and a further 50 000 at R7 500. So, the R974 million was for goods and services. While that changes, what does happen in employment is that work must be done to improve statistics, so there is a marginal increase in the formal personnel expenditure on statistics. I'll come to that in a moment.

In respect of the fourth issue raised, namely the business registration: Yes, this time last year, I think, we were exceeding optimistic. But you would know that what has happened in the intervening period is that the Companies and Intellectual Property Registration Office, Cipro, had severe problems. They have retooled themselves as the Companies and Intellectual Property Commission, the CIPC. Now, it is a commission and that, I think, put a brake on the collaborative effort that you need, because Statistics SA on its own could not do it.

The big change – and this is where, I think, additional numbers and additional budgets would be needed, and I'll come to this in just a moment - would be to undertake this large survey of all businesses in the country, so that you have a baseline of information and then you can work with the SA Receiver of Revenue and Statistics SA. The figures you quoted from Sars were canvassed in the committee hearing, because there is a measure of double counting.

We are not dealing with exactly the same issue, because just to use the wage bills, for instance ... Because you have unemployment Insurance Fund which is one set of numbers, and you have the skills development levy which is the second baseline of information with different cutoffs, and then you have with Pay As You Earn a number of people under the threshold. You have Site – the Standard Income Tax on Employees – and we need to compare like with like. The need to establish a baseline beyond which is impossible to triangulate is what the challenge has to be going forward.

Hon Koornhof, I'm glad you noticed the representatives of the Auditor-General's office. In fact, this morning we met with them. We will work and ensure that the financial accountability is as best as we can get it. And sometimes these are difficult issues because a normal budget and an elevated budget through a census are two different issues. Part of this is difficult, because you do not have all of the systems in place to deal with every cost centre in a census. But, I think, we want to give members the assurance that we will continue to work on this.

You mentioned the Statistician-General's yellow suit, but you did not mention his blue suede shoes. They were pensioned together and they will be put in the statistics museum for posterity.

Hon Singh – yes, the story of the undercount - did you check that you were actually at the hospice meeting? Perhaps you were somewhere else.

Mr N SINGH: I was at the mortuary. [Laughter.]

The MINISTER IN THE PRESIDENCY: NATIONAL PLANNING COMMISSION: He said "at the mortuary". Oh, okay. [Interjections.] [Laughter.] Perhaps I should encourage the committee to invite Statistics SA to have a discussion about their communication. I'm very concerned about the value of the information. There is no point in spending all of the money that we do on a census and then the information does not get used.

The press is actually quite unreliable. They do not know how to internalise information and how to intermediate it. We have made repeated - I've said this before - offers to the press to train specialists. We will provide the workshop opportunities, and they must put forward the people. And those people, if they understand how to use the data sets, would then be able to write the stories.

The press is not forthcoming. They haven't assigned experts, and so we can't depend on that kind of intermediation. The issues you raise are very important. Ensuring that we can have the information available in a user-friendly format is going to be a very big challenge. Perhaps, through you, Chairperson, we could ask the committee to consider having a discussion just on that issue because it will be vital.

The HOUSE CHAIRPERSON (Mr M B Skosana): Hon Minister, you should also wind up.

The MINISTER IN THE PRESIDENCY: NATIONAL PLANNING COMMISSION: On the increases sought, hon Swart, they are primarily for the business census. I know that there is a measure of hyperbole in the way in which some of these things are articulated. But the new national accounts, which would be part of the global trend change, and the business survey are going to be two of those.

Regarding the hon Ross and hon Ollis: Did they come to Parliament, because they were scared to march against Cosatu today? [Laughter.] No, let's not go there. On the issue of the basket of food: the changes are being introduced.

Let me just say in terms of the employment numbers, in the May release there is a narrow and a broad definition. The other number is 36,6, which includes discouraged workers. It's a published number; it's not below the table. That is very important. But, I think, we must also understand that the International Labour Organisation 2012 job report talks of the need for 600 million jobs to be created over the next decade, a deficit of 200 million as we speak and added to that about 40 million a year. So, it is a big global challenge that we need to get on top of.

Let me conclude, Chairperson, by thanking you. You have allowed me an extra 10 seconds. I would like to thank the members for a very lively debate. Thank you very much. [Applause.]

The HOUSE CHAIRPERSON (Mr M B Skosana): Thank you, hon Minister. You should not have said that. [Laughter.]

Debate concluded.

The Committee rose at 18:41.

NS / END OF TAKE


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