Question NW1265 to the Minister of Basic Education

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17 May 2018 - NW1265

Profile picture: Boshoff, Ms SH

Boshoff, Ms SH to ask the Minister of Basic Education

What were the (a) repetition and (b) drop-out rates in (i) Grade 7, (ii) Grade 8 and (iii) Grade 9 in each (aa) province and (bb) district for each of the academic years since 1 January 2012?

Reply:

A) Percentage of learners repeating a grade by province and year

Currently, the best source of data available for estimating repetition rates is STATS SA’s General Household Survey (GHS). The most recent data is from 2016. The repetition rates per grade, year and province are shown below. Note that this is a nationally representative sample survey, and the figures presented below are therefore estimates rather than exact census type information. The sample is not designed to provide representative statistics per education district, and therefore this information is not available. For 2016, the estimated national repetition rate was 7.6% in grade 7, 11.0% in grade 8, and 11.9% in grade 9.

 

Province

Grade 7

Grade 8

Grade 9

 

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Western Cape

4.4

6.0

4.9

5.8

5.9

9.6

3.8

7.6

10.2

6.3

8.7

14.7

9.8

14.4

15.4

Eastern Cape

7.8

7.9

8.4

9.5

7.5

11.9

11.3

7.6

13.7

5.8

10.0

11.2

14.7

11.1

4.7

Northern Cape

7.7

10.3

10.0

21.1

12.8

8.0

8.6

10.6

17.2

12.0

6.5

13.0

22.3

18.1

9.2

Free State

4.7

14.2

12.0

13.1

16.5

8.5

7.9

11.3

18.1

18.4

13.9

22.7

26.9

29.9

22.1

KwaZulu-Natal

5.8

6.0

4.1

6.3

7.5

7.4

8.7

10.0

5.9

11.0

9.7

13.2

9.0

6.9

7.7

North West

14.6

10.4

8.9

13.5

10.8

13.8

4.8

10.0

17.7

20.1

16.5

31.2

19.5

21.0

23.7

Gauteng

3.5

4.9

3.1

3.6

5.0

8.3

4.4

9.1

6.5

8.2

13.9

8.4

11.4

8.9

7.9

Mpumalanga

7.9

14.7

12.8

10.5

8.6

19.3

19.4

18.8

24.4

18.7

19.4

15.6

23.2

21.0

17.1

Limpopo

7.7

7.9

8.8

7.8

5.9

8.9

10.2

7.0

17.2

11.7

27.4

24.5

32.9

24.1

16.6

South Africa

6.5

7.9

6.8

7.9

7.6

10.3

8.6

9.8

12.3

11.0

15.0

16.2

17.3

14.8

11.9

Source: General Household Survey (GHS), DBE own calculation

B) Drop-out rate

Similarly, the best available estimates of drop-out rates by grade are derived using GHS data. The table below shows the drop-out rates and survival rates for 2 different age cohorts, those born during 1987-1989 (and surveyed between 2011-2013) and those born during 1990-1992 (and surveyed between 2014-2016). These two cohorts provide a justifiable comparison across time, because the individuals would have been the same age when surveyed (between 22 and 26 years old). The specific cohorts were chosen, because individuals aged 22 – 26 years old would have been old enough to have completed school at the time when the GHS data was collected, and we will therefore be able to gauge what percentage of them finished their schooling at which grades. The survival rates in the table show the percentage of individuals who reached each grade. The rate was then converted to show the number of individuals, out of a 1000 individuals who reached each grade. It was then also possible to calculate the percentage of all individuals reaching particular grades who then drop out before attaining the next grade.

Note that for several years the data has been combined for this analysis in order to ensure that there are sufficient sample sizes in each of the cells. It is also important to note that whilst this method provides the most reliable estimates of drop-out rates by grade, it does not reflect the drop-out that happened in a particular year – the data may have been collected from 22-26 year-olds between 2014-2016 but those youths may have dropped out of school in an earlier year.

Interpretation focusing on 2014-2016:

An estimated 0.7% of these youths in 2014-2016 reported to have not even completed Grade 1. Grade 12: 51.5% of this cohort attained Grade 12. It was also calculated that 26% of those with Grade 11 (NB: not of all youths) dropped-out before attaining Grade 12. Similarly, the drop-out rates for grade 7, 8 and 9 were 3.1%, 4.6% and 9.5% respectively.

Drop-out rates for each grade are also reported by province using the same methodology in the tables below, for both the 2011-2013 combined period and the 2014-2016 combined period. It is worth noting that in general the survival rates improved in the more recent period.

Survival rates and drop-out rates, associated with each grade

 

2011-2013

2014-2016

 

Survival Rate

Survival per 1000

Percentage dropping out with this Grade attained

Survival Rate

Survival per 1000

Percentage dropping out with this Grade attained

Total cohort

100%

 

 

100%

 

 

No schooling

 

1000

0.7%

 

1000

0.7%

Grade 1

99.3%

993

0.4%

99.3%

993

0.1%

Grade 2

98.9%

989

0.5%

99.1%

991

0.2%

Grade 3

98.4%

984

0.4%

98.9%

989

0.5%

Grade 4

98.0%

980

0.7%

98.4%

984

0.5%

Grade 5

97.3%

973

1.0%

97.9%

979

0.8%

Grade 6

96.3%

963

1.5%

97.1%

971

1.5%

Grade 7

94.9%

949

3.1%

95.7%

957

3.1%

Grade 8

92.0%

920

5.2%

92.7%

927

4.6%

Grade 9

87.2%

872

9.0%

88.5%

885

9.5%

Grade 10

79.4%

794

17.1%

80.0%

800

15.5%

Grade 11

65.8%

658

26.0%

67.6%

676

23.8%

Grade 12

48.6%

486

 

51.5%

515

 

Data Source: General Household Survey, DBE own calculation

Drop-out rates, associated with each grade by province 2014-2016

Grade

No schooling

Grade 1

Grade 2

Grade 3

Grade 4

Grade 5

Grade 6

Grade 7

Grade 8

Grade 9

Grade 10

Grade 11

Western Cape

1.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.4%

0.3%

0.3%

0.8%

3.1%

4.7%

9.9%

16.9%

22.3%

Eastern Cape

0.9%

0.2%

0.4%

1.3%

1.1%

1.9%

3.0%

5.0%

6.9%

13.7%

23.8%

35.0%

Northern Cape

1.8%

0.4%

0.0%

0.4%

0.5%

1.1%

2.3%

4.0%

8.8%

14.0%

19.3%

23.0%

Free State

0.9%

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

0.4%

0.8%

1.8%

3.4%

5.2%

12.5%

17.1%

21.5%

Kwazulu-Natal

0.7%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.8%

0.8%

2.5%

4.1%

7.8%

13.3%

25.3%

North West

1.4%

0.2%

0.5%

0.3%

0.7%

0.9%

2.1%

2.5%

6.3%

14.5%

20.2%

22.6%

Gauteng

0.4%

0.0%

0.2%

0.2%

0.3%

0.2%

0.8%

2.0%

2.6%

5.0%

10.4%

17.6%

Mpumalanga

0.5%

0.0%

0.0%

0.3%

0.5%

1.5%

1.6%

3.7%

2.9%

8.1%

16.6%

28.7%

Limpopo

0.6%

0.1%

0.2%

0.7%

0.6%

0.8%

2.5%

4.3%

7.3%

15.6%

19.3%

28.4%

Data Source: General Household Survey, DBE own calculation

Note: data for 2014-2016 pooled together to overcome small sample errors

INTERPRETATION: This means that 28.4% of 22-26 year-olds in Limpopo who completed Grade 11 dropped-out before attaining Grade 12.

Drop-out rates, associated with each grade by province 2011-2013

Grade

No schooling

Grade 1

Grade 2

Grade 3

Grade 4

Grade 5

Grade 6

Grade 7

Grade 8

Grade 9

Grade 10

Grade 11

Western Cape

0.4%

0.3%

0.3%

0.1%

0.2%

0.5%

0.8%

2.7%

5.5%

11.1%

21.1%

23.1%

Eastern Cape

0.7%

0.4%

0.8%

1.3%

1.2%

2.3%

3.6%

5.2%

10.0%

13.3%

23.5%

40.6%

Northern Cape

1.5%

0.1%

0.1%

0.6%

1.9%

0.8%

1.4%

4.6%

10.3%

14.1%

20.7%

19.4%

Free State

0.3%

0.4%

0.2%

0.2%

1.0%

0.4%

1.9%

2.8%

4.9%

12.7%

19.1%

20.3%

Kwazulu-Natal

0.5%

0.6%

0.6%

0.7%

0.8%

0.9%

1.1%

2.4%

4.0%

7.5%

15.2%

23.2%

North West

1.8%

0.7%

0.4%

0.5%

0.8%

1.9%

2.3%

5.4%

6.1%

10.1%

19.2%

27.3%

Gauteng

0.6%

0.3%

0.4%

0.1%

0.4%

0.4%

0.8%

1.7%

2.8%

4.8%

12.0%

22.2%

Mpumalanga

1.2%

0.1%

0.6%

0.2%

0.9%

1.2%

1.4%

2.9%

6.5%

8.9%

16.3%

29.4%

Limpopo

1.1%

0.5%

0.4%

0.4%

0.4%

1.3%

1.3%

4.3%

5.2%

12.6%

22.5%

33.4%

Data Source: General Household Survey, DBE own calculation

Note: data for 2011-2013 pooled together to overcome small sample errors

Source file