Question NW2136 to the Minister of Health
17 June 2022 - NW2136
Steenhuisen, Mr JH to ask the Minister of Health
With reference to his reply to question 1334 on 5 May 2022 about age-specific excess deaths since March 2020, which states that 6 779 excess deaths were recorded for the age group 0-9 years, 1 803 for the age group 10-19 years and 4 709 for the age group 20-29 years, what proportion of the excess deaths does the SA Medical Research Council estimate to be directly attributable to (a) COVID-19 and (b) non-COVID-19 factors for each of the specified age groups
Reply:
(a) In an effort to determine the proportion of the excess deaths which are attributable to COVID-19 and what proportion are attributable to non-COVID factors, the SAMRC Burden of Disease Research Unit and University of Cape Town (UCT) Centre for Actuarial Research used the correlation of excess natural deaths with other measures of the COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa. Based on comparison of the time trends in excess deaths, the confirmed COVID-19 deaths (by date of occurrence), and proportions testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 in 2020 and 2021, the SAMRC/UCT collaboration estimated that 85%-95% of excess deaths were directly related to COVID-19. However, it was not possible to assess whether this differs by age groups.
(b) The remaining 5-15% of the excess deaths are considered to be attributable to non-COVID-19 factors.
END.