Question NW1334 to the Minister of Health

Share this page:

05 May 2022 - NW1334

Profile picture: Steenhuisen, Mr JH

Steenhuisen, Mr JH to ask the Minister of Health

What total number of excess deaths have been recorded for each 10-year age group of the population in each (a) province and (b) month since 1 March 2020?

Reply:

Excess deaths refer to the number of deaths observed during the pandemic above a baseline of recent trends. Estimates of excess deaths provide information about the burden of mortality potentially related to the COVID-19 pandemic, including deaths that are directly or indirectly attributed to COVID-19.

The numbers of excess deaths in South Africa are estimated from the death registration data that the South African Medical Research Council obtains from the National Population Register maintained by the Department of Home Affairs.

Using all-cause deaths reported in the death registration system of South Africa (adjusting for late registration and incompleteness), the MRC developed estimates and monitors excess deaths experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic in the country. Weekly reports have been published, providing the total number of excess deaths from natural causes by province since 3 May 2020.

(a)-(b) Table A below provides the broad age break down of the numbers of excess deaths from natural causes in each wave of the pandemic and the figure shows the broad age band breakdown of the total excess deaths experienced during the period Week 19 of 2020 to Week 13 of 2022 (i.e., 9 May 2020 – 2 April 2022). 52 weeks are assumed per calendar year. The data is collected and presented by Epidemiological weeks which are used as a standard method to report excess deaths. Estimates of the numbers of excess natural deaths by province by age group are currently not available due to the fact that as you go lower down in population breakdown, variations may be marginal in comparison, which affects the confidence level of the estimates. The research team, comprising demographers, epidemiologists and statisticians are confident within a small range of uncertainty, with the numbers of excess deaths by broad age group (separate from provincial categorisation) at a national level.

Age group (years)

Wave 1

(2020 week 19 -2020 week 42)

Wave 2

(2020 week 43 - 2021 week 14)

Wave 3

(2021 week 15 -2021week 46)

Wave 4 (2021 week 47- 2022 week 13)

Total

(2020 week 19 - 2022 week 13)

0-9

-3 399*

1 806

4 540

3 832

6 779

10-19

183

473

685

462

1 803

20-29

604

1 400

1 857

848

4 709

30-39

-533*

1 381

475

-452*

871

40-49

1 675

6 200

6 020

478

14 373

50-59

8 554

18 448

21 243

3 850

52 095

60-69

14 428

30 219

29 426

6 642

80 715

70-79

14 026

26 362

29 792

6 927

77 107

80+

13 107

20 010

26 600

7 766

67 483

Total

48 647

106 298

120 640

30 353

305 938

Table A

* negative values were reported where the deaths were lower than the baseline

(i.e., no excess death for that period)

Table B below shows excess death rates adjusted for differences in the age structure in each province. This data is from a peer reviewed publication scheduled for release in the May/June issue of the South African Journal of Science[1].

Province

Total excess natural deaths

Cumulative age-adjusted rate per

100 000 population

Annualised age-adjusted rate per 100 000 population

     

Wave 1

(2020 week 19-2020 week 42)

Wave 2

(2020 week 43-2021 wee k14)

Wave 3

(2021 week 15 - 2021week 46)

Wave 4

(2020 week19-2022 week 4)

2020

2021

Eastern Cape

50 257

621

362

502

237

389

299

294

Free State

16 662

570

304

388

411

208

150

404

Gauteng

58 254

410

210

249

346

79

111

299

KwaZulu-Natal

60 942

610

233

651

300

253

178

416

Limpopo

31 758

467

100

440

353

222

419

384

Mpumalanga

22 795

509

132

467

396

183

444

410

Northern Cape

8 428

671

212

361

602

330

114

535

North West

16 569

422

117

322

395

124

63

352

Western Cape

30 559

379

154

272

249

154

130

237

South Africa

295 135

497

183

389

318

179

218

342

Table B

  1. Bradshaw D, Dorrington R, Laubscher R, Groenewald P, Moultrie T. COVID-19 and all-cause mortality in South Africa – the hidden deaths in the first four waves. South African Journal of Science. (In Press).END.

     

Source file