Question NW1334 to the Minister of Health
05 May 2022 - NW1334
Steenhuisen, Mr JH to ask the Minister of Health
What total number of excess deaths have been recorded for each 10-year age group of the population in each (a) province and (b) month since 1 March 2020?
Reply:
Excess deaths refer to the number of deaths observed during the pandemic above a baseline of recent trends. Estimates of excess deaths provide information about the burden of mortality potentially related to the COVID-19 pandemic, including deaths that are directly or indirectly attributed to COVID-19.
The numbers of excess deaths in South Africa are estimated from the death registration data that the South African Medical Research Council obtains from the National Population Register maintained by the Department of Home Affairs.
Using all-cause deaths reported in the death registration system of South Africa (adjusting for late registration and incompleteness), the MRC developed estimates and monitors excess deaths experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic in the country. Weekly reports have been published, providing the total number of excess deaths from natural causes by province since 3 May 2020.
(a)-(b) Table A below provides the broad age break down of the numbers of excess deaths from natural causes in each wave of the pandemic and the figure shows the broad age band breakdown of the total excess deaths experienced during the period Week 19 of 2020 to Week 13 of 2022 (i.e., 9 May 2020 – 2 April 2022). 52 weeks are assumed per calendar year. The data is collected and presented by Epidemiological weeks which are used as a standard method to report excess deaths. Estimates of the numbers of excess natural deaths by province by age group are currently not available due to the fact that as you go lower down in population breakdown, variations may be marginal in comparison, which affects the confidence level of the estimates. The research team, comprising demographers, epidemiologists and statisticians are confident within a small range of uncertainty, with the numbers of excess deaths by broad age group (separate from provincial categorisation) at a national level.
Age group (years) |
Wave 1 (2020 week 19 -2020 week 42) |
Wave 2 (2020 week 43 - 2021 week 14) |
Wave 3 (2021 week 15 -2021week 46) |
Wave 4 (2021 week 47- 2022 week 13) |
Total (2020 week 19 - 2022 week 13) |
0-9 |
-3 399* |
1 806 |
4 540 |
3 832 |
6 779 |
10-19 |
183 |
473 |
685 |
462 |
1 803 |
20-29 |
604 |
1 400 |
1 857 |
848 |
4 709 |
30-39 |
-533* |
1 381 |
475 |
-452* |
871 |
40-49 |
1 675 |
6 200 |
6 020 |
478 |
14 373 |
50-59 |
8 554 |
18 448 |
21 243 |
3 850 |
52 095 |
60-69 |
14 428 |
30 219 |
29 426 |
6 642 |
80 715 |
70-79 |
14 026 |
26 362 |
29 792 |
6 927 |
77 107 |
80+ |
13 107 |
20 010 |
26 600 |
7 766 |
67 483 |
Total |
48 647 |
106 298 |
120 640 |
30 353 |
305 938 |
Table A
* negative values were reported where the deaths were lower than the baseline
(i.e., no excess death for that period)
Table B below shows excess death rates adjusted for differences in the age structure in each province. This data is from a peer reviewed publication scheduled for release in the May/June issue of the South African Journal of Science[1].
Province |
Total excess natural deaths |
Cumulative age-adjusted rate per 100 000 population |
Annualised age-adjusted rate per 100 000 population |
|||||
Wave 1 (2020 week 19-2020 week 42) |
Wave 2 (2020 week 43-2021 wee k14) |
Wave 3 (2021 week 15 - 2021week 46) |
Wave 4 (2020 week19-2022 week 4) |
2020 |
2021 |
|||
Eastern Cape |
50 257 |
621 |
362 |
502 |
237 |
389 |
299 |
294 |
Free State |
16 662 |
570 |
304 |
388 |
411 |
208 |
150 |
404 |
Gauteng |
58 254 |
410 |
210 |
249 |
346 |
79 |
111 |
299 |
KwaZulu-Natal |
60 942 |
610 |
233 |
651 |
300 |
253 |
178 |
416 |
Limpopo |
31 758 |
467 |
100 |
440 |
353 |
222 |
419 |
384 |
Mpumalanga |
22 795 |
509 |
132 |
467 |
396 |
183 |
444 |
410 |
Northern Cape |
8 428 |
671 |
212 |
361 |
602 |
330 |
114 |
535 |
North West |
16 569 |
422 |
117 |
322 |
395 |
124 |
63 |
352 |
Western Cape |
30 559 |
379 |
154 |
272 |
249 |
154 |
130 |
237 |
South Africa |
295 135 |
497 |
183 |
389 |
318 |
179 |
218 |
342 |
Table B
-
Bradshaw D, Dorrington R, Laubscher R, Groenewald P, Moultrie T. COVID-19 and all-cause mortality in South Africa – the hidden deaths in the first four waves. South African Journal of Science. (In Press).END.