Question NW2285 to the Minister of Health
18 November 2021 - NW2285
Ismail, Ms H to ask the Minister of Health
(1)Whether his department has done any modelling forecasting regarding the date by which the Republic will achieve 40 million vaccinations; if not, why not; if so, what are the relevant details of the model, including the assumptions that were made in the forecasting processes; (2) whether he will furnish Ms H Ismail with any proof of delivery of the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccines; if not, why not; if so, what are the relevant details?
Reply:
1. The Department is working against the target of reaching 70% of adults (28 million persons) vaccinated with at least one dose by end of December 2021. The number of vaccinations is dependent on the number of persons vaccinated with Pfizer, which is a two dose vaccine. As of 16 November, the Department has vaccinated 16 million persons; however there have been 24.2 million vaccinations. The Department is confident that it will reach 70% coverage in all age bands; and in all provinces and districts. The coverage in the 60+ population is highest (just below 64%); while it is lowest (25.5%) among youth (18-34 year) population. We have a large youth population in South Africa. 17.8 million of 39.8 million adults are in this age group and therefore, our overall vaccination coverage is going to be heavily dependant on our collective ability to convince youth to be vaccinated.
The Vaccination coverage is a function of both supply and demand side factors. The forecasting done by the Department is largely from a supply side (looking at both health system capacity; and availability of vaccines). The lower coverage we’re observing currently is driven by demand side factors.
2. One million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine (Covishield) were delivered to South Africa on 01 February 2021.
Attached is the vaccine arrival report detailing the receipt of the shipment in South Africa.
Furthermore, attached is the vaccine arrival report detailing the receipt of the shipment in South Africa.
END.