Developments in Sudan/Horn of Africa: Department briefing

FOREIGN AFFAIRS PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE
18 October 2006
DEVELOPMENTS IN SUDAN/HORN OF AFRICA: DEPARTMENT BRIEFING

Chairperson: Ms F Hajaig (ANC)

Documents handed out:
Briefing on Horn of Africa. Presentation by the Chief Directorate East Africa

SUMMARY
The Department of Foreign Affairs briefed the Committee on recent developments in Somalia and the Sudan. Ambassador Makhubela stated that the government of South Africa should open a dialogue with the Union of Islamic Courts to find out what their intentions are since they seem to have created stability over a large area of Somalia. He also expressed concern over the use of suicide bombers in a presidential assassination attempt, which might reflect an increase in radical Islamic influence.

Members asked questions about South Africa’s role in the region, the role of the United Nations, African Union and European Union, inter-regional trade and recommendations that would lead to lasting peace.

MINUTES

Department of Foreign Affairs briefing on Sudan and Somalia

In the interests of time, Ambassador Makhubela promised to be brief, especially since he had briefed the Committee on these issues not too long ago. He started with Somalia and said that it was a common denominator in the region. He explained the make up of the population as it related to ethnicity. The Bantu constitute the majority of the Somali population, while the rest is comprised of four smaller groups, such as the Hawiye. According to the Ambassador, all the warlords come from this single clan, the Hawiye.

Ambassador Makhubela said that Somalia’s relations with neighbouring Ethiopia are now being placed under more strain because of the actions of the Union of Islamic Courts. Relations have worsened ever since the Ogaden war in the late 1970s, wherein Ethiopia defeated Somalia. In this war Somalia, under Muhammed Siad Barre, wanted to create a Greater Somalia, but the Ethiopians thwarted its plans. In 1991, Barre fled Mogudishu, the capital of Somalia, thus allowing the collapse of the central government, the rise of warlordism and the disintegration of the state through protracted and brutal fighting.

Ambassador Makhubela explained that there have been 13 attempts at starting a peace process and regrettably all have failed. He noted that this was due to the exclusion of major warlords during the peace negotiations. The fourteenth attempt to stop the fighting is now under way and a major part of it is the “Half plus 4” power-sharing system, which refers to the 50% majority of the population (the Bantu clan) and the four smaller ethnic groups. Peace talks have stopped again until the intentions of the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC, also referred to as “The Courts”) can be determined. Previously, the South African Department of Foreign Affairs thought that it could bring the warlords into the peace process, but it was to no avail. The five major warlords did not want to participate in talks with the transitional Federal Government (TFG) of Somalia. The fighting, in the past and now, has been centered on controlling Mogadishu, as whoever controls the capital, controls Somalia.

Ambassador Makhubela went on to say that Ethiopia, Kenya and Djibouti are the most important stakeholders in the crisis in Somalia. Currently, said the Ambassador, there is no concrete evidence of a war between Eritrea and the UIC.

The recent developments were summarised by the Ambassador as follows. There are ongoing peace talks between the TFG and the Courts over a compromise and creating a power-sharing government. The talks are being held in Khartoum, Sudan. Most worrying is the emergence of a new phenomenon in Somalia. Previously, the conflict has been characterised by the use of light weapons, but a recent assassination attempt on the President, Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed, involved suicide bombers. So there is a worry about the role that radical Islamists are playing in the region.
Also, the UIC has taken over the port of Kismayo, which is the most important sea access point, and the towns of Jowher and Balad. The Department of Foreign Affairs believes that the Courts are sending a strong message that they are in control of the country and not the TFG. The UIC claimed that they took control of Kismayo because of the activities of pirates in the nearby waters.

Other developments include the declaration of a Jihad against Ethiopia by the UIC and a request by the Somali Prime Minister for a lifting of some of the restrictions of a United Nations (UN) arms embargo. Also, the UIC has said that it will oppose the deployment of African Union (AU) troops in Somalia. According to Ambassador Makhubela, in 1993, when the US went into Somalia, it united all the warlords and the deployment of AU or even UN troops could do the same again.

Ambassador Makhubela gave a description of the UIC. He said that they are compromised of diverse groups. He said that they may or may not have links to al-Qaeda. He said that the Somalis have a history of being a very submissive group and have no inclination towards extremism. He did repeat his fear that the attack by suicide bombers may mean that this has changed. He added that the US has fears that al-Qaeda might be active in the country and that it might become a training ground for them or other extremists. The Ambassador recommended that the South African government move quickly and open up a dialogue with the UIC to ascertain their intentions. Finding out who they are and what they want is a fundamental issue especially given the history of the region and that it could erupt into a regional war again. Another reason for talking with the Courts was that they seem to have brought some order and stability to the areas that they control. The people like this and it may create some legitimacy for the UIC. The Ambassador ended by saying that Somalia presents a critical challenge to the continent.

The Ambassador moved on to the situation in the Sudan.

The Ambassador said that there was a need to assist the parties within the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). Unfortunately it seems that a united Sudan does not appear to be the goal of all the parties in the negotiating process. He went on to say that the CPA is in danger of disintegrating because the National Congress Party (NCP) and the SPLM/A (Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement/Army) are not participating in meaningful dialogue.

The most recent developments included the hijacking of 15 trucks which formed part of a humanitarian convoy. The trucks were then discovered in neighbouring Chad. This incident raises questions about the survivability of the Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA) as it seems that civilian/humanitarian convoys cannot operate safely.

Another issue of ongoing concern is the “re-hatting” of the current AU force (AMIS). The Government of Sudan refuses to allow UN troops on its soil and the AU force’s mandate is expected to conclude at the end of the year. There is a worry about what will happen next, especially since there have been serious concerns raised about troop movements within Sudan.

South Africa has been involved with the training of police and bureaucrats. R15 million has been gives to the South African Police Service train Sudanese police units in South Africa. An arrangement with the University of South Africa has so far trained 430 officials to work in state administration as well. South Africa is also supporting the idea of re-hatting the AU force because it costs about $20-$30 million per month to keep AMIS in the area. UN funding is much more able to pay this heavy bill.

Also, a donor’s conference in Oslo saw 100 per cent more funds promised than was expected. However, most of it will be given towards humanitarian relief, because there is also a huge need to address poverty alleviation through economic growth.

Discussion
Mr M B Skosana (IFP) said that Somalia is such a protracted problem. He asked about intra-trade and how developed it is in the Horn of Africa region.

Ambassador Makhubela answered that there is significant trade in oil between Djibouti and Somalia and that Southern Sudan trades with Uganda and Kenya and this is in fact flourishing of late. Most countries in the region belong to the regional Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD). This regional political entity’s main purpose is to increase and facilitate trade between the countries in the Horn of Africa.

Mr C Mulder (FF+) asked about Ethiopia and how it used to be considered a model of success in the region. He said that it has had several setbacks now and wanted to know about its future prospects.

Ambassador Makhubela responded that it was unfortunate that Ethiopia has faced certain difficult times. He said that Ethiopia is now not where it used to be and that does not bode well for a region that is of late constantly in crisis.

Mr W J Seremane (DA) expressed concern that the term Bantu is being used in Somalia. He wanted to what is the underlying cause of the problem in Somalia and asked if it could be mineral or oil related.

The Ambassador replied that there is no great potential for mineral resource extraction. There might be oil resources in Somalia but nobody has started proper study and research of the area. This is due mainly to the ongoing conflict in the country and that it could also exacerbate the crisis, but it could begin in earnest once stability has taken root.

The Ambassador also responded to the Bantu remark by saying that using the term was necessary for working out the “Half plus 4” power-sharing system.

Mr Seremane stated that South Africa’s involvement was good for the region and he wanted to know what efforts others are making.

Ambassador Makhubela replied that the African Union’s troop presence in the Sudan is invaluable and their diplomatic efforts have been extremely important. He also mentioned the hard work of the United Nations and their humanitarian aid. The United States, he added, has also been involved and the European Union (EU) has been a financial contributor to the AMIS troops. The EU also supports the re-hatting efforts. He added that all parties are trying to increase the understanding of the CPA.

Mr B J Mnyandu (ANC) asked what recommendations could be made to the Somali government to prevent further hijacking of humanitarian aid conveys.

The Ambassador explained that one reason for the ease of the hijacking is that there is an ethnic clan, the Zaghwe, which lives in the border area between the Sudan and Chad. This and the fact that the border is very porous contributed to the trucks ending up in Chad. Also, the recent coup attempt in Chad has been blamed on the Sudanese government. This also has severely weakened the border patrol co-operation between the two.

The Chairperson said that there is no revenue-sharing mechanism in the Sudan between the government and the south. She asked about the issues of banks in the south and that they would indeed be important for development. She wanted to know if it would be possible for South Africa to aid in this effort since we already do training.

The Ambassador said that there are efforts to re-establish the Equatorial Bank. He said that development experts know that local financial institutions would help create economic opportunities and would also highlight fiscal responsibility for the government. He added that there are talks about revenue-sharing talking place. The meetings were at a very high level and there are good structures for communication on the issue.

Mr Seremane asked about the role of the United States in the Sudan.

Ambassador Makhubela said that because of the mid-term elections in the United States in the next few weeks there would probably be no tangible contribution. Anything would most likely be rhetoric to please internal stakeholders in the United States and nothing would be done to change dynamics on the ground.

The meeting was adjourned.