Census 2022 project implementation and results impacting the 7th Administration; with Deputy Minister
Meeting Summary
The Portfolio Committee on Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation convened virtually for a briefing by Statistics South Africa (StatsSA) on the implementation of the Census 2022 project. The official statistics resulting from Census 2022 would directly affect the government, planning, budgeting and implementation, and monitoring and evaluation of the 7th Administration.
The key concern from the meeting was the integrity of the data released by StatsSA, considering the significant undercount that was reported. The Statistics Council statement also declared that Census 2022 was fit for purpose but with caution. The Committee questioned whether the data could be relied on for the purpose of budget allocations, given the cautionary note issued by the Statistics Council. The Committee was assured that the data was fit for planning purposes and that the caution related to specific areas which needed further examination by using supplementary data sources. The magnitude of the undercount did not affect the census because the estimates were within the 5% threshold in terms of the prescribed Quality Assessment Framework.
Underfunding remains a concern and is hampering advocacy campaigns and the technological advancement that StatsSA is planning to achieve. The Committee was assured that the matter is on the agenda of the Presidency and StatsSA. The Committee will be informed of the ongoing engagements about a budget increase with the National Treasury.
Meeting report
The Chairperson welcomed the Deputy Minister, Ms Nonceba Mhlauli, officials from StatsSA and the Statistics Council. She indicated that this was meant to be a physical meeting, but due to circumstances, an application was made to the House Chair to convene a virtual meeting. StatsSA is tasked with ensuring that South Africa has credible, official statistics. The official statistics resulting from Census 2022 would directly affect the government, planning, budgeting and implementation, and monitoring and evaluation of the 7th Administration. The briefing is about what had transpired regarding the implementation and results of the Census 2022 project. StatsSA was also requested to respond to questions asked at the Orientation Workshop. She invited the Deputy Minister to make her opening remarks.
Deputy Minister’s opening remarks
Deputy Minister Mhlauli stated that she was standing in for the Minister, who is part of the delegation to China, on a state visit with the President. The StatsSA team, the Chairperson, and the Deputy Chairperson of the Statistics Council were present at the meeting. She remarked that there was no crisis with Census 2022. The government is confident that the data released was fit for purpose. Section 7(2)(a) of the Statistics Act directs the Statistician-General (SG) to conduct a population census every five years. However, the Amendment Bill stipulates that it must be done every ten years. The SG would share the process and challenges of Census 2022, the measures implemented to do a post-enumeration survey (PS), and an undertaking on the undercount issue. The organisation needs to be transparent about the undercount matter, which has been in the media for a while. The media's narrative perpetuated the idea that the undercount figure had not been disclosed, although the organisation did it. Section 13(1) of the Statistics Act stipulates that the Statistics Council must advise the Minister about the process, analysis, documentation, storage and dissemination of statistics, including conducting a population census. The Statistics Council is an advisory body that operates independently of government. The Minister appoints members of the Council. The role of the Council in the population census in advising the Minister and the SG is fully understood. Part of the reason for this discussion is based on nefarious attempts by the media to poke holes in the numbers despite the team being transparent about the numbers since they had been released. She was looking forward to having a robust and open conversation about protecting the integrity of the data. It was the third time that StatsSA had appeared before the Committee. She called on the SG to proceed with the presentation.
StatsSA presentation
Mr Risenga Maluleke. Statistician-General, StatsSA, appreciated the introduction that the Deputy Minister had provided. He acknowledged the presence of Dr Nompumelelo Nzimande-Mbele and Mr Ian Assam, Chairperson and Deputy Chairperson, respectively, of the Statistics Council. The Statistics Council comprises members of the public nominated by different establishments in society, including academia, organised labour, and organised business, who continue to guide StatsSA with expert advice and hold the organisation accountable for the methods used in official statistics. The two entities do not always agree, but the Council annually reports to Parliament on the advice given to StatsSA.
He confirmed that this was the third time that StatsSA was presenting an update on its work to the Committee. It is a legal requirement to account for the allocated budget. The release of census data was questioned during the deliberations in the previous meeting. He stated that all results were released, and the organisation never had to withdraw data from the website. Every report released is based on collected data. The job of StatsSA is to count and not to estimate. The mandate for the census is to count everyone within the borders of South Africa, including undocumented persons who use the country's resources. The results of Census 2022 showed an increase in the population from 51.8 million in 2011 to 62 million in 2024. This represents a population increase of 10.3 million or 19.8%.
The key challenges experienced during Census 2022 include:
Human Resources
The shortfall in fieldworker applicants in some areas. Additional interventions were made in some provinces due to dropouts and resignations.
Fleet shortages
The availability of rental vehicles was affected by Covid-19 restrictions.
Refusals and non-responses
Some provinces experienced high refusal and non-responsive rates, mostly among the white population in the Western Cape. Interventions were made, but they must be sustained for the next census.
Despite the challenges, the organisation received an unqualified audit opinion with findings on compliance with laws and regulations during the census year. The implementation of management processes eliminated the historical trend of qualified audits.
Dr Nzimande-Mbele stated that the role of the Statistics Council is to provide a conducive environment to secure the collection and dissemination of data. The organisation oversees the entire census undertaking from inception to the end, including the post-enumeration survey. Census 2022 was the first digital census which presented unique opportunities and challenges. The organisation would continue to oversee and advise the Minister about the changing environment. Part of the oversight role is to issue statements based on an overview and advice from experts who declared the census fit for purpose. In October 2023, a cautionary statement was issued that the data might not align with what was expected after a review of specific trends. The Statistics Council applies transparency and adheres to international standards. It also observes how StatsSA handled media reports about the undercount and validity of the data. A statement was subsequently issued that the data was fit for planning purposes with caution related to specific areas.
(See Presentation)
Discussion
The Chairperson remarked that the COVID-19 pandemic greatly impacted Census 2022, but StatsSA completed the task despite the organisation being underfunded. She sought an explanation from the Deputy Minister regarding measures that would be taken to ensure that the organisation is financially adequately capacitated to improve its capability and retain experts. She noted the input from the Deputy Minister and the Statistics Council. She urged members to also give recommendations on issues, e.g., how to keep competent specialists from leaving the organisation.
Mr D Bergman (DA) thanked the SG for the honest feedback and welcomed the invitation from the Deputy Minister to have a robust debate. He regretted that the difficulty experienced with Census 2022 in the Western Cape was labelled a racial issue. The meeting between StatsSA and the Premier aimed to get the methodology correct to obtain a population count as close as possible for grant allocation in the Western Cape. It was not an indication of racism. The insinuation that white people did not want to take up low-paying jobs should be viewed as an LSM issue. Technology should become more widely used. He enquired about the checks and balances to determine the reliance on the census data. He sought clarity on whether the many deaths during COVID-19, the number of people leaving school and births registered had been checked against the previous census data and factored into the model. He questioned the statement made by the Statistic Council Chairperson that the census was fit for purpose, although areas of concern existed. The DA wished to work constructively with the organisation to salvage the effort and create a successful future census.
Mr S Gama (MK) wanted to know what StatsSA would have done differently given the analysis of Census 2022. He noted that the undercount figure was not emphasised when the data was released in October 2023. The data's reliability is deemed questionable because this was not done. Given the cautionary notes made by the Statistics Council Chairperson, he questioned whether the census was fit for purpose. He asked what the tolerance limit in terms of bias was. The former SG stated in 2011 that the aim was to reduce the undercount to zero. He wanted to know to what extent the 31% undercount was causing the credibility crisis. He asked if it would have been better to have conducted the census at a later date. He called on the SG to share his experience of the journey of the census and the lessons he learned to improve the next census. He viewed the scope and size of the PS as too small based on the high undercount reported.
Ms A Kumbaca (ANC) welcomed StatsSA's comprehensive report. The reasons for the undercount seemed sound to her. She asked if the Presidency advocated increasing funding to make the census a five-yearly event.
Ms K Kristi (DA) thanked the SG and the Statistics Council for their openness in answering the questions. She agreed that an enhanced advocacy campaign and digital systems were needed. She was a ward councillor at the time of Census 2022 and confirmed that the climate of fear in Cape Town suburbs led to the unwillingness of people to let fieldworkers enter their homes. She asked for the names of the independent experts whose reports StatsSA and the Statistics Council were relying on to be made public. Since StatsSA spent R3 billion on Census 2022 and counted 69% of the population, she asked why the data could not be made available to researchers who could salvage it and use it for modelling.
Mr N Buthelezi (IFP) welcomed the comprehensive articulation of the world of StatsSA. He asked what factors determine the method used at different times and for what reason. He enquired about the acceptable strike rate or margin of error for a successful count. Given the budget cuts, he wanted to know how StatsSA balanced the technological advancement it planned to achieve. He asked how fake IDs had been accounted for. He enquired about the efforts being made to educate the public about the importance of the census. He asked which areas were presenting the most resistance. He wanted to know how the numbers concerning the prison population have been accounted for, considering the fluidity of movement in the system. He agreed with Ms Kristi that people are fearful when there is a knock at the door. He wanted to know how to understand the matter based on StatsSA. He asked how prepared StatsSA were for a disaster or another pandemic.
The SG tasked his officials to respond to the questions linked to their areas of responsibility.
Ms Nthabiseng Makhatha, DDG: Methodology and Statistical Infrastructure, StasSA, said the sample size was based on the 2011 census. The reliability of the 2011 estimates was used as a basis to increase the 2022 estimates by 15%. The magnitude of the undercount did not affect the census because the reliability of the estimates affected the undercount. The quality assessment framework prescribes a threshold of 5%. The coefficient of variation for the population of 62 million was below the 5% threshold. The extent of the 31% undercount compared to the estimates and population was within the acceptable prescribed framework.
Mr Calvin Molongoana, Census Project director, StatsSA, replied to Mr Buthelezi about fake documents being used for voting. He stated that documents are not needed to verify information. Records of prisoners are obtained from prison authorities on the night of the census. The resistance from people varies depending on the area, and how people react is influenced by the environment. For example, reporting farm murders in 2001 made it difficult to access farming areas. During service delivery protests, fieldworkers had difficulty accessing informal settlements and townships. These challenges are being managed with the assistance of response partners such as the local police and security firms. Collaboration with government is needed to promote voter education and advocacy. South Africans usually take time to be coerced into taking part in national campaigns. Technological advancement is required to achieve an improved outcome. Funding is limited to above-the-line communication efforts. The uptake for telephonic information gathering was not good. The general public needs assurance that their confidentiality is protected.
Mr Ashwell Jenneke, DDG: Statistical Operations and Provincial Coordination, StatsSA, said the Premier and Western Cape Provincial Government assisted with voter communication. The R2 million communication budget was not enough. Advocacy should include church and school campaigns. More of this type of communication effort was needed for a broader reach.
Mr Solly Molayi, Acting DDG: Population and Social Statistics, stated that the second quarterly report showed a 33.5% unemployment rate, which meant that 8.4 million people were unemployed and 2 million people felt discouraged and were no longer looking for employment. He advised that the report is available on the StatsSA website and in the presentation. The next report will be available in November 2024 and shared with the Committee.
Ms Yandiswa Mpetsheni, DDG: South African National Statistics System, StatsSA, said the accuracy of information is verified against StatsSA surveys and Home Affairs records including birth registers and the voters roll.
Mr Maluleke said the Western Cape had been raising challenges since 1996. At the time, StatsSA was requested not to release the preliminary results. The final results showed a lower population count than the preliminary results. The involvement of the Premier was due to this history and to ensure that the count was a true reflection of the Western Cape population for budgetary purposes. New issues emerge with every census. Some of the issues are beyond the capacity of StatsSA and require the assistance of the broader population, including neighbourhood watches in the suburbs and the police in farming communities. In some areas, white people refused to be counted. It was disturbing to hear that fieldworkers were refused entry by some political leaders while people in Nyanga were warning fieldworkers about the risk of being harmed in Mitchells Plain. He agreed that there was a need for checks and balances. In 2001 and 2011, children under one year old had been underreported. The unemployment and poverty rates in the Western Cape were reported to be the lowest, while the income per capita was the highest in Gauteng, followed by the Western Cape. In 2019, 31% of registered voters did not vote, which had increased to 40% in the 2024 elections. He agreed that it would have been better to conduct the census at a later date. COVID-19, the unrest and floods in Kwazulu-Natal impacted the census. He explained that the United Nations guidelines determine the figures for people not born in South Africa. He disputed the comment that the undercount was not emphasised. He acknowledged that underfunding was a problem. The Statistics Council had once threatened to resign. To build a competent statistician takes 20 years. It is difficult to find replacements because StatsSA cannot match the salaries offered in the private sector. He agreed that imposters were a problem largely in suburbs and gated communities. He replied to Ms Kristi that making data available for researchers was impossible. Researchers can use labour surveys and reports on registered deaths and births released publicly. In response to the comment that StatsSA was relying on faceless and non-existent experts, he said the organisation is taking responsibility for the work of the two professors from the Actuarial Research Institute, who would not comment on the work done due to the level of access they had to the data. He replied to the Chairperson that the vacancy rate was 20%. Permission was granted to fill only 7 of the 660 unfunded positions. He wished to reach out to the public and political parties to invite StatsSA to talk about the census and the organisation's work.
Dr Nzimande-Mbele said she would be reflecting on improvements that could be made. The United Nations has two types of census undertakings, i.e. the short and long-form census projects. The short form is used by countries that use a small set of questions to determine the population's number of people, composition and distribution. South Africa includes more questions that are important for planning purposes. She explained that fit for purpose meant the data is useable for planning purposes. The caution implied that some information, e.g. fertility data, needed further examination using supplementary data sources. If the data composition does not reflect what it is supposed to be according to information obtained from experts, then the statement would reflect cause for concern.
Deputy Minister Mhlauli thanked the StatsSA team for the comprehensive presentation and responses. Census 2022 was conducted under difficult circumstances, not only due to the COVID-19 pandemic but also because of the financial constraints that the country was experiencing. The fiscus was already constrained before the pandemic. Underfunding had been a long outstanding issue raised multiple times by the previous administration. When the StatsSA budget was adopted, there was consensus that the situation could not continue because it would affect the integrity of the organisation and its outcomes. During the budget debate, the Minister undertook to continue engaging National Treasury. An update on the engagement would be requested from the Ministry and shared with the Committee. The Minister wants the Department to start the new year with a clearer picture of the funding issue. The matter is on the agenda of the Presidency, which is the body that oversees StatsSA. In response to the fear raised by some Members, she said there was no intention to paint the province in a particular way. She acknowledged that different factors influence people's behaviour. The job of StatsSA is to report on what was found in the field. The job of public representatives is to analyse the data and improve StatsSA's work. The Claremont ward that Ms Kristi referred to has high walls and gates, making campaigning in the area difficult. She was pleased with the report about the Premier’s involvement. National and Provincial governments need to work together to ensure a better response for the next census and to avoid the same conversations about undercounting and underfunding and the risk factors inherent in underfunding that led to the census being questioned. She committed to providing the Committee with a report on the continuous engagements with National Treasury, which she hoped would be fruitful.
The Chairperson thanked the Deputy Minister, the StatsSA team, and the Statistics Council members for the engagement. The Committee made its observations and would make further recommendations on the report from StatsSA. The StatsSA team and Statistics Council members were then released.
Minutes
The Committee adopted the minutes as a true reflection of what had transpired at the meeting on 30 August 2024.
The Chairperson apologised for converting the meeting into a virtual one. The support staff will communicate whether the next meeting will be virtual or physical.
Mr Bergman drew the committee's attention to the mini-plenary meetings that the Programming Committee was planning for Fridays. At some point, the mini-plenary meetings would clash. Additionally, there appears to be a problem finding a venue for the Friday meetings. He enquired about possibly moving the meetings to Wednesdays to avoid the mini-plenary clash. He asked if the matter could be voted on.
The Chairperson replied that the support staff would liaise with the Office of the House Chair about changing the meetings from Fridays to Tuesdays or Thursdays. She noted his advice but reminded him that Members have responsibilities in more than one committee that should be considered.
Ms Kumbaca indicated that she would have a problem with Wednesday meetings.
The Chairperson noted her concern and said she would wait for feedback from the support staff before deciding on the matter.
The meeting was adjourned.
Audio
No related
Documents
Present
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Mgweba, Ms T
Chairperson
ANC
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Aphiri, Ms MJ
ANC
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Bergman, Mr D
DA
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Buthelezi, Mr NZ
IFP
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Christie, Ms KA
DA
-
Gama, Mr S I
MK
-
Kumbaca, Ms AN
ANC
-
Mhlauli, Ms NB
ANC
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