Status of census in the Western Cape: StatsSA briefing; Constitution of the Western Cape First Amendment Bill: way forward

Meeting report

Status of the census in the Western Cape
Mr Ashwell Jenneker, Deputy Director-General: Statistical Operations and Provincial Coordination, Statistics South Africa, gave a presentation on the status of the census in the Western Cape Province. He said the goal of a census was to count everyone within the borders of South Africa without omission or duplication. A census was a benchmark count of the entire population of the country. Information was collected on each person in households. It included fertility and mortality, education, occupation, housing, and access to services and assets.

He said the Western Cape census covered 97 percent of the enumeration areas (EAs) with 82 percent of questionnaires completed and 15 percent in progress. The main census started in February of the current calendar year and ended in May. The post-enumeration survey (PES) data collection started in June 2022 and was expected to end in February 2023. Data confrontation, report writing, product development, and data packaging were expected to commence in March 2023 and last until April 2023. The launching and dissemination of results would be in the second and third quarters.

The PES data collection was undertaken shortly after completing census enumeration as per United Nations (UN) guidelines. It identified the number of households and persons erroneously included, missed, or double counted in the census. The PES outcomes would be used to provide a statistical basis for adjustment of census data.

He said results of the census would be presented in the formats preferred by users. They would be widely presented in electronic format as reports, monographs, and interactive tools and printed only in cases where electronic means were impossible.

Mr Calvin Molongoana, Acting Deputy Director-General: Statistical Support and Informatics, Stats SA, expressed appreciation for the support provided by the Western Cape Provincial Government to Stats SA during the census project.

Discussion
Mr P Marais (FF+) wanted to know how Stats SA determined if the data collected was accurate in its PES data collection process. Which data collection method was more efficient, the online or the door-to-door physical data collection? Did one have advantages over the other or were they considered equally efficient?

Ms W Philander (DA) wanted to know how the gathered information correlated with the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) database and whether the information had any influence on the IEC database.

The Chairperson asked for examples of the smart dissemination tools, whether they were part of the current budget and if they included gadgets such as tablets, laptops and phones. He also wanted to know why Stats SA did not take a leading role in assisting the Western Cape Government's publicity campaign for the census.

Responses
Mr Jenneker said Stats SA had a certain sense of the country's demographic profile, which also allowed them to estimate the possible population growth over time. If the numbers did not correlate with the estimate, they would confront the data and try to find the reasons, whether there might have been an error in the counting or other factors that might not have been considered.

There were pros and cons in both the physical form of counting and the online data collection. For example, in-person counting worked exceptionally well in rural areas compared to urban areas. The online capability and literacy in rural areas were not strong compared to urban areas. It was not a matter of one method being better than the other, but rather on the method being fit for purpose.

On Stats SA's relationship with the IEC, he said Stats SA had EAs and the IEC had voting districts. The IEC used the EAs and the populations within the EAs to determine their voting districts. The IEC would stratify the population that was over 18 years old within the districts using Stats SA's mid-year estimates to determine where their voting districts would be and where they would put their centres. There was close collaboration between Stats SA and the IEC and sharing of information and ideas.

On the smart dissemination tools, he said they were investigating Microsoft tools and Plato Data Intelligence. They were mainly investigating what other countries were used for dissemination. Stats SA had spent about R200 million on publicity, but that was not enough because the way people consume television nowadays is different. People had more options for entertainment like YouTube and Netflix. Stats SA had taken a leading role in publicising the census but probably needed a lot more than R200 million to do enough publicity campaigns to convince people to get counted.

Further discussion
Mr Marais wanted to know how Stats SA managed to estimate the population that lived in informal settlements within the province and whether their estimates were influenced by trends over specific time periods. He said there were many informal settlements in the province, some of which were illegal, but government still needed to provide services to those who lived in those areas. He said the population estimate needed to be accurate and there must have been a way to determine the number of people who lived in the province as legal citizens of the country and those who were not legal.

The Chairperson was concerned that the dissemination and consumption of information would not be as effective as it could be if the budget for communication was not increased. He wanted to know the amount of the publicity budget set aside for advertising or communication regarding the dissemination of information and how this would be done in the second quarter of 2023.

Mr Jenneker said they counted everyone within the borders of South Africa and did not ask whether people were living in the country legally or illegally. When the results were released, they did not provide the legal status of the people. 

When planning a census, Stats SA used its existing EA layers, the most recent aerial photography, and other mapping tools and information available to determine what the new EAs should look like and provide an estimate.

The next step would be to physically count every dwelling unit, which would give the final answer. A further estimation after this would be done only when an adjustment based on the number of people missed in the physical count was done.

Mr Luqman Omar, Executive Manager: Data Processing, Stats SA, said the dissemination budget was compartmentalised and was different from the actual publicity campaign budget. It was for building software tools and equipment for getting the final census results and deliverables. National Treasury had allocated a budget of approximately R30 million in the current Medium Term Expenditure Framework; the bulk of that - R25 million - was for the software and dissemination tools. No big campaign was planned as part of dissemination.

Ms Zeenat Ishmail, Head of the Provincial Data Office in the Western Cape Government, thanked Mr Molongoana for his acknowledgement of the collaboration between the Western Cape Government and Stats SA during the census. She asked if it would be feasible to document the lessons learnt from the census and when that information would be available. Would documenting lessons learnt by Stats SA be done in cooperation with other government departments and stakeholders that collaborated in the census?

Mr Marais asked if changing the number of seats in the Western Cape Provincial Parliament (WCPP) from 42 to 71 would be conservative considering the population growth in the province in the next five years. Using the 1:100 000 ratio for calculating the number of seats, he wanted to know if the proposed 71 seats should be raised to 74 before the next census.

Mr Malongoana said Stats SA had only held a debriefing on the field-related operations and governance issues so far. They would soon have a comprehensive debriefing looking at post-enumeration activities and expert reports on the variables. They would sum up the debrief by providing an account of how the count was done, but the actual details of what was captured in the debriefings would be reserved for internal use by Stats SA in preparation for the next census. If there were any specific interests from other departments, Stats SA would devise a way to share the information with the specific departments while protecting the confidential information.

Mr Jenneker said it was critically important that people saw Stats SA as independent and knew they could trust them when they collected statistics. He said Mr Marais's question was leading toward the issue of becoming both a referee and a player and added that Stats SA provided data so that people could use it. They were not interested in whether 71 or 74 seats would be enough, and it was in the interests of the statistical system that they did not get involved in the debate.

In ensuring that trust was maintained in the system, Stats SA did not involve themselves in advising on how the data they provided should be used. Their role was to ensure that they provided data and enough training for people to understand how to use the data.

The Chairperson thanked the delegation from Stats SA for their presentation.

Constitution of the Western Cape Amendment Bill

The Committee then discussed the way forward for the Constitution of the Western Cape First Amendment Bill.

The Chairperson said one of the resolutions of the Committee in its previous meeting was to invite the provincial minister for the environment, Mr Anton Bredell, and the national minister, Ms Barbara Creecy, as well as the Director-General of the Department of Forestry, Fisheries and Environment, Ms Nomfundo Shabalala, to address them on the viability of an environmental commissioner for the Western Cape. He proposed that the Committee enact the resolution.

Ms D Baartman (DA) supported the Chairperson's proposal. She asked whether the Committee could consider inviting legal experts to speak to them about the mechanisms available for environmental legislation because it was claimed that the constitutional provision was already catered for in other laws.

The Chairperson agreed.

Ms Philander agreed with Ms Baartman and the Chairperson's proposal.

Mr Marais cautioned the Committee against shooting itself in the foot. He said the trend in the majority party and other parties was that they wanted more authority and power. The Committee should rather see if it could give the environmental commissioner more authority. If there was a constitutional dispute, the Constitution might provide that the dispute must be settled between the spheres of government. The Committee should not be afraid of disputes because it also has authority over environmental affairs.

Ms Baartman suggested that the Committee ask the national department whether, if they devolved some of the powers relating to the current environmental legislation in the country, they would commit to providing the budget for exercising those powers. There were some mandates that overlapped between the spheres of government.

Mr G Brinkhuis (Al-Jamah) said the Committee had spoken about an environmental issue in the Macassar area where a sewage plant was undergoing an upgrade a few months ago. The Committee had resolved to conduct an oversight visit in the area. When would that happen? 

The Chairperson was unsure whether such a visit would fall under the Committee's mandate.

On the environmental legislation issue, he said the Committee had resolved to invite the Chairperson of the Standing Committee on Environmental Affairs to address it on the Western Cape Coastal Management Project as well as the communication strategy on the appointment of an environmental commissioner and whether it was feasible.

He agreed with Mr Marais that they should not shoot themselves in the foot and must exercise due diligence. He suggested that the Committee ask the parliamentary legal unit to report to it on the legalities surrounding the possibility of enacting an environmental commissioner and on the laws that would supersede or precede the establishment of the commissioner. Other questions were whether there was an appetite for funding the establishment of the environmental commissioner and where the commissioner would be situated. 

Mr Marais said the Committee must be able to challenge the government in terms of the Constitution and not only on what they found preferable. Clause 99 said that a cabinet member could assign any power or function that was to be exercised in terms of an Act of Parliament to a member of a provincial executive or a municipal council. This must be in terms of an agreement between the relevant cabinet member and the executive council member or municipal council. The finances would be included in that agreement, but the Committee had to start the process of negotiation.

Resolutions

The Chairperson requested the Committee Secretary to note down the Committee's resolutions on the establishment of the environmental commissioner:

Invite legal experts to speak to the Committee about the mechanisms available in the law for Environmental Legislation, because it was claimed that the proposed constitutional provision was already catered for in other laws.

To pose a question to the national department about whether it would also commit to providing a bigger budget if powers relating to the environmental legislation were devolved due to overlapping mandates between spheres of government.

The Chairperson said the Committee could only support the amendment of the Constitution through a motion of desirability and they were not there yet with the environmental commissioner matter. The most important thing was that they did not shoot themselves in the foot. They should try to explore all the necessary avenues in the meantime, including the legal overlaps and the devolution of powers. Once the Committee had the opinion of the Minister and the Director-General of Forestry, Fisheries and the  Environment, it could move forward.

The meeting was adjourned.