Pakistan-India Situation: briefing

Meeting report

FOREIGN AFFAIRS PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE
12 October 1999
SITUATION IN SOUTH ASIA: BRIEFING

Documents handed out:
Policy to provoke an arms race: news article from The Star, 3/9/99.
Stepping back from the precipice: news article from The Star, 5/7/99.

MINUTES
Mr S Saeed, the Pakistan High Commissioner to Pretoria, briefed the Portfolio Committee on the present situation in South Asia. He said that he came as an old and traditional friend of South Africa, and warned that India's 'triad' nuclear doctrine will accelerate the militarisation of South Asia. He pleaded with the international community to encourage and assist in this process of regional détente and de-escalation, to promote the negotiated settlements of disputes, as well as a regime of restraint and stabilization in South Asia.

Mr Saeed informed the committee that India's government has proposed a grandiose nuclear doctrine, which intends to chart the country's regional and security policies into the new century, by the establishment of "sufficient, survivable triad of land, air and sea based (nuclear weapon) systems". He said that this document delineates and defines the contours of India's post nuclear security parameters, while serving as a general enunciation of its nuclear policy within an expanded geo-political framework. This draft nuclear doctrine reflects the military dimension of India's emergent geo-political security theatre, as well as enunciates and underlines India's position regarding international efforts aimed at nuclear arms control and disarmament, the stabilisation in the insatiable quest for ballistic missiles, and the Integrated Missile Development Programme. This clearly leaves the sesame open for a qualitative and quantitative arms race. This policy will prepare India to respond to a perceived 'threat of use of nuclear weapons' and will not exclude from those it may target, countries 'aligned with nuclear weapon powers'.

There are also reports that India had already evolved technology for thermonuclear and neutron weapons. The so-called declaration on no first use, or non-use of nuclear weapons against non-nuclear states is designed to secure recognition for India as a nuclear weapons state, which flows from 'acceptance' of its 'assurances'. The principle of no first use will make no practical sense in the Indo-Pakistan nuclear context, due to the geographical proximity of the population centres of the two countries. It is feared that the nuclear doctrine will lead to a dangerous escalation in the region's nuclear arms buildup. The reported costs of implementing the doctrine is presently estimated at about R100 billion which will also lead to much economic and political instability throughout the region. If the nuclearisation of South Asia becomes a reality, Pakistan will be compelled to follow suit. The international community will itself have to reckon with its implications for peace and security on the Asian continent and beyond.

Mr Saeed said that the South African leadership has repeatedly shown the temerity and conviction required to address major problems of our times without flinching. He asked South Africa to shoulder some of the responsibility, which alone can restore the region's quest for a more secure and prosperous future. He concluded by saying that the dispute over Kashmir is not about territory, but about exercising their right to self-determination.

Questions by committee members
Mr Ebrahim, the chairperson, expressed concern about the nuclear tests conducted by India and Pakistan. He also asked what the status was regarding the Lahore Declaration.
Ms F Hajaij (ANC) asked what is the attitude of Pakistan in not signing the treaty.
Mr Lockey (ANC) This crisis clearly indicates the looming of danger. Perhaps Mr Mandela should intervene in the role of an independent broker, to assist, in a moral sense.

Mr Saeed said that Kashmir could decide whether to accede to India or to Pakistan. This decision is difficult to make, due to the strong military presence in Kashmir. If you only try to disarm one side, there will be conflict. This situation changed drastically when India conducted nuclear tests. If India signs, then what will happen to Pakistan? Pakistan will sign the treaty when sanctions are removed. It is not fair on Kashmir for India or Pakistan to impose on them. The right to choose is fundamental. He welcomed Mr Lockey's ppoposal.

Mr Ebrahim concluded by saying that India and Pakistan are both friends of South Africa, because of the close ties during the liberation movement. South Africa is confident in the leadership of India and Pakistan, as they have managed to solve problems in the past. Mr Saeed extended an invitation to the committee to visit Pakistan on a fact-finding mission.