2023 Draft Integrated Resource Plan

The Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy has published the Draft Integrated Resource Plan 2023, and is asking you to comment.

Interested and affected persons and organisations are invited to submit written comments to [email protected] on or before 23 March 2024

3.    The Integrated Resource Plan 2023

3.1    Cabinet considered and approved the publication of the Integrated Resource Plan 2023 for public comments and consultation. The draft IRP 2023 reviews the approved IRP 2019 and covers two-time horizons, namely the 2030 and 2050 time horizons. Several key assumptions used in the IRP 2019 have significantly changed, including the electricity demand projection, Eskom’s energy availability factor, Eskom’s coal fired power plants shutdown plan, as well as the cost of new power generation technologies. 

3.2    The 2030-time horizon (Horizon One) focuses on addressing prevailing generation capacity constraints, whereas the 2031 – 2050 time horizon (Horizon 2) focuses on an analysis of the energy mix pathways for sustainable security of supply. 

3.3    For Horizon One – five scenarios have been developed and assessed based on the state of readiness of projects in the pipeline. The scenarios considered include first the RMIPPPP, REIPPPP 5 and business projects currently under construction. Second, all project initiatives with commercial operation date (COD) and a specified location. Third, all project initiatives include those with no grid capacity reservation, COD, and specified location. Additionally, two scenarios, one comprising the reference case and current gas programme, and another based in improved plant performance according to the generation recovery plan have been modelled.

3.4    For Horizon 2, six energy pathways were considered to assess the impact of the different energy technologies in ensuring the country’s power system security of supply at the least cost to the economy. The reference pathway establishes a benchmark against other pathways and it is based on least cost. The five other pathways are based on certain guiding policy principles and they are designed to be exploratory in nature. These policy principles were formulated with a focus on decarbonising the power system, shutting down of existing coal-fired power stations post 2035, and exploring clean coal technologies including carbon capture. 

Source: Cabinet Statement, 8 December 2023